Game · 2020-21 Regular Season
10/29 Game 1
Naoki Setokuma finished 1st (+57.5pt). The game was decided in South 3, 1 honba: Naoki Setokuma ron 12,000 from Kenji Katsumata, which moved Naoki Setokuma's expected points by +45.5.
1st-place probabilityat the start of each hand
Hand by handexpected pt change = how much the hand's result moved the expected final points
| Hands | Result | Sayaka Okada 1st-place chance | Seiichi Kondo 1st-place chance | Naoki Setokuma 1st-place chance | Kenji Katsumata 1st-place chance | Sayaka Okada Expected pt change | Seiichi Kondo Expected pt change | Naoki Setokuma Expected pt change | Kenji Katsumata Expected pt change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| East 1 | Sayaka Okada ron 5,800 from Naoki Setokuma | 25% | 26% | 25% | 24% | +17.8 | -2.9 | -16.0 | +1.1 |
| East 1, 1 honba | Naoki Setokuma ron 1,300 from Sayaka Okada | 38% | 23% | 15% | 24% | -3.5 | +0.3 | +3.5 | -0.3 |
| East 2 | Kenji Katsumata tsumo 2,000 | 34% | 24% | 17% | 25% | +0.3 | -2.9 | -2.5 | +5.2 |
| East 3 | Exhaustive draw | 35% | 21% | 15% | 29% | 0.0 | -0.7 | -2.5 | +3.2 |
| East 4, 1 honba | Sayaka Okada ron 3,900 from Seiichi Kondo | 35% | 21% | 13% | 31% | +15.5 | -12.6 | +0.7 | -3.6 |
| South 1 | Exhaustive draw | 50% | 13% | 12% | 25% | +8.6 | -2.6 | -1.9 | -4.1 |
| South 1, 1 honba | Exhaustive draw | 59% | 10% | 11% | 20% | +0.4 | -3.2 | -4.2 | +7.1 |
| South 1, 2 honba | Seiichi Kondo tsumo 8,000 | 58% | 9% | 9% | 24% | -10.5 | +27.6 | -8.9 | -8.3 |
| South 2 | Sayaka Okada ron 1,000 from Naoki Setokuma | 49% | 24% | 6% | 21% | +6.4 | -0.9 | -5.2 | -0.3 |
| South 3 | Naoki Setokuma ron 5,800 from Seiichi Kondo | 58% | 19% | 5% | 19% | +2.7 | -21.4 | +16.1 | +2.7 |
| South 3, 1 honba | Naoki Setokuma ron 12,000 from Kenji Katsumata | 64% | 7% | 10% | 19% | -4.9 | -0.6 | +45.5 | -40.0 |
| South 3, 2 honba | Kenji Katsumata ron 8,000 from Seiichi Kondo | 51% | 6% | 38% | 5% | +4.3 | -28.8 | -1.7 | +26.2 |
| South 4 | Exhaustive draw | 58% | 0% | 31% | 10% | -11.0 | -1.7 | +10.3 | +2.4 |
| South 4, 1 honba | Naoki Setokuma ron 2,000 from Sayaka Okada | 36% | 0% | 52% | 13% | -14.6 | -1.3 | +24.9 | -8.9 |