Game · 2020-21 Regular Season

10/29 Game 1

Setokuma Naoki finished 1st (+57.5pt). The game was decided in South 3, 1 honba: Setokuma Naoki ron 12,000 from Katsumata Kenji, which moved Setokuma Naoki's expected points by +47.0.

1st-place probabilityat the start of each hand

The chance of finishing 1st, at the start of each hand (estimated by simulation). Shaded: the hand that decided this game.

Hand by handexpected pt change = how much the hand's result moved the expected final points

Hands	Result	Okada Sayaka 1st-place chance	Kondo Seiichi 1st-place chance	Setokuma Naoki 1st-place chance	Katsumata Kenji 1st-place chance	Okada Sayaka Expected pt change	Kondo Seiichi Expected pt change	Setokuma Naoki Expected pt change	Katsumata Kenji Expected pt change
East 1	Okada Sayaka ron 5,800 from Setokuma Naoki	23%	26%	25%	27%	+20.8	-0.5	-19.0	-1.3
East 1, 1 honba	Setokuma Naoki ron 1,300 from Okada Sayaka	38%	24%	14%	24%	-7.7	+1.4	+5.6	+0.7
East 2	Katsumata Kenji tsumo 2,000	31%	25%	18%	26%	+2.5	-6.7	-3.1	+7.3
East 3	Draw	35%	21%	15%	29%	+0.6	+0.1	-1.1	+0.5
East 4, 1 honba	Okada Sayaka ron 3,900 from Kondo Seiichi	35%	20%	15%	31%	+12.9	-10.3	-1.1	-1.6
South 1	Draw	46%	14%	13%	28%	+9.7	-3.4	-2.1	-4.1
South 1, 1 honba	Draw	58%	10%	11%	21%	+2.1	-3.2	-3.2	+4.3
South 1, 2 honba	Kondo Seiichi tsumo 8,000	60%	10%	8%	23%	-12.2	+25.9	-8.0	-5.7
South 2	Okada Sayaka ron 1,000 from Setokuma Naoki	48%	23%	8%	21%	+8.0	-2.0	-4.9	-1.2
South 3	Setokuma Naoki ron 5,800 from Kondo Seiichi	58%	17%	6%	19%	+2.0	-19.6	+14.6	+3.0
South 3, 1 honba	Setokuma Naoki ron 12,000 from Katsumata Kenji	63%	7%	10%	20%	-4.4	-0.6	+47.0	-42.0
South 3, 2 honba	Katsumata Kenji ron 8,000 from Kondo Seiichi	53%	5%	38%	4%	+3.8	-28.6	-2.3	+27.1
South 4	Draw	58%	0%	32%	10%	-11.4	-2.0	+11.8	+1.5
South 4, 1 honba	Setokuma Naoki ron 2,000 from Okada Sayaka	35%	0%	54%	11%	-14.3	-1.0	+23.0	-7.7

All 2020-21 games / This game's record (M League Haifu)