Game · 2020-21 Regular Season
10/29 Game 2
Aki Nikaido finished 1st (+70.3pt). The game was decided in South 4: Aki Nikaido tsumo 12,000, which moved Aki Nikaido's expected points by +47.2.
1st-place probabilityat the start of each hand
Hand by handexpected pt change = how much the hand's result moved the expected final points
| Hands | Result | Yuumi Uotani 1st-place chance | Aki Nikaido 1st-place chance | Makoto Sawazaki 1st-place chance | Saki Kurosawa 1st-place chance | Yuumi Uotani Expected pt change | Aki Nikaido Expected pt change | Makoto Sawazaki Expected pt change | Saki Kurosawa Expected pt change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| East 1 | Yuumi Uotani ron 3,900 from Saki Kurosawa | 24% | 26% | 24% | 26% | +10.5 | -0.6 | -0.3 | -9.7 |
| East 1, 1 honba | Exhaustive draw | 31% | 23% | 25% | 21% | +5.2 | +2.9 | -3.3 | -4.8 |
| East 1, 2 honba | Yuumi Uotani tsumo 12,000 | 35% | 26% | 22% | 17% | +32.9 | -12.3 | -11.7 | -8.9 |
| East 1, 3 honba | Aki Nikaido tsumo 8,000 | 64% | 14% | 12% | 10% | -12.8 | +21.7 | -3.0 | -5.9 |
| East 2 | Exhaustive draw | 51% | 28% | 13% | 9% | +10.0 | -5.4 | -3.5 | -1.1 |
| East 3, 1 honba | Yuumi Uotani ron 2,600 from Saki Kurosawa | 62% | 20% | 10% | 8% | +9.3 | +1.6 | -3.2 | -7.7 |
| East 4 | Saki Kurosawa ron 12,000 from Yuumi Uotani | 73% | 19% | 5% | 3% | -28.8 | +2.2 | -1.5 | +28.1 |
| East 4, 1 honba | Exhaustive draw | 45% | 29% | 9% | 17% | -3.8 | +4.7 | -1.7 | +0.7 |
| East 4, 2 honba | Yuumi Uotani tsumo 1,500 | 40% | 32% | 9% | 19% | +10.5 | -1.7 | -3.4 | -5.3 |
| South 1 | Yuumi Uotani ron 3,900 from Saki Kurosawa | 51% | 30% | 7% | 12% | +12.3 | -1.3 | +1.4 | -12.4 |
| South 1, 1 honba | Aki Nikaido ron 8,000 from Makoto Sawazaki | 64% | 24% | 5% | 7% | -6.4 | +23.5 | -17.2 | +0.1 |
| South 2 | Exhaustive draw | 50% | 44% | 2% | 5% | +8.5 | -5.8 | -2.2 | -0.5 |
| South 3, 1 honba | Makoto Sawazaki tsumo 6,000 | 63% | 33% | 2% | 3% | -2.9 | -3.0 | +14.0 | -8.1 |
| South 3, 2 honba | Saki Kurosawa ron 12,000 from Makoto Sawazaki | 62% | 32% | 3% | 3% | +3.8 | -3.4 | -26.5 | +26.1 |
| South 4 | Aki Nikaido tsumo 12,000 | 69% | 23% | 0% | 8% | -30.1 | +47.2 | -3.5 | -13.6 |