Game · 2020-21 Regular Season
11/6 Game 1
Aki Nikaido finished 1st (+68.2pt). The game was decided in East 1, 1 honba: Aki Nikaido tsumo 12,000, which moved Aki Nikaido's expected points by +36.5.
1st-place probabilityat the start of each hand
Hand by handexpected pt change = how much the hand's result moved the expected final points
| Hands | Result | Makoto Sawazaki 1st-place chance | Aki Nikaido 1st-place chance | Mari Takamiya 1st-place chance | Ken Sonoda 1st-place chance | Makoto Sawazaki Expected pt change | Aki Nikaido Expected pt change | Mari Takamiya Expected pt change | Ken Sonoda Expected pt change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| East 1 | Exhaustive draw | 26% | 24% | 26% | 24% | +3.2 | -2.5 | -1.6 | +0.9 |
| East 1, 1 honba | Aki Nikaido tsumo 12,000 | 29% | 23% | 24% | 25% | -17.1 | +36.5 | -9.9 | -9.5 |
| East 2 | Aki Nikaido ron 3,900 from Mari Takamiya | 14% | 52% | 18% | 16% | +0.2 | +8.8 | -9.1 | +0.1 |
| East 2, 1 honba | Ken Sonoda tsumo 12,000 | 13% | 60% | 12% | 16% | -10.3 | -16.6 | -8.2 | +35.1 |
| East 3 | Exhaustive draw | 9% | 41% | 9% | 41% | -4.0 | -2.7 | +9.0 | -2.2 |
| East 3, 1 honba | Exhaustive draw | 8% | 40% | 12% | 40% | -0.6 | -3.5 | +6.2 | -2.1 |
| East 3, 2 honba | Aki Nikaido tsumo 8,000 | 10% | 36% | 16% | 38% | -4.0 | +29.0 | -17.4 | -7.7 |
| East 4 | Exhaustive draw | 5% | 67% | 5% | 24% | +6.4 | +0.8 | -3.2 | -3.9 |
| South 1, 1 honba | Aki Nikaido ron 5,200 from Makoto Sawazaki | 7% | 70% | 4% | 20% | -15.4 | +13.2 | +2.0 | +0.3 |
| South 2 | Exhaustive draw | 0% | 86% | 2% | 12% | -1.0 | -2.3 | -2.3 | +5.5 |
| South 3, 1 honba | Aki Nikaido ron 1,000 from Mari Takamiya | 0% | 85% | 2% | 14% | -1.9 | +5.5 | -3.9 | +0.3 |
| South 4 | Mari Takamiya tsumo 5,200 | 0% | 92% | 0% | 9% | -9.2 | +2.7 | +14.6 | -8.1 |