Game · 2020-21 Regular Season
11/6 Game 2
Hisato Sasaki finished 1st (+78.6pt). The game was decided in South 1, 2 honba: Hisato Sasaki tsumo 12,000, which moved Hisato Sasaki's expected points by +31.4.
1st-place probabilityat the start of each hand
Hand by handexpected pt change = how much the hand's result moved the expected final points
| Hands | Result | Hisato Sasaki 1st-place chance | Taro Suzuki 1st-place chance | Sayaka Okada 1st-place chance | Kenji Katsumata 1st-place chance | Hisato Sasaki Expected pt change | Taro Suzuki Expected pt change | Sayaka Okada Expected pt change | Kenji Katsumata Expected pt change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| East 1 | Kenji Katsumata ron 3,200 from Sayaka Okada | 25% | 23% | 27% | 25% | +0.1 | +1.8 | -13.6 | +11.8 |
| East 2 | Exhaustive draw | 23% | 25% | 18% | 35% | -3.9 | +6.0 | +2.3 | -4.4 |
| East 2, 1 honba | Sayaka Okada ron 3,900 from Taro Suzuki | 22% | 28% | 20% | 31% | -0.6 | -11.5 | +13.2 | -1.1 |
| East 3 | Taro Suzuki ron 1,300 from Kenji Katsumata | 21% | 21% | 28% | 30% | +3.0 | +4.5 | -5.0 | -2.5 |
| East 4 | Kenji Katsumata tsumo 12,000 | 23% | 25% | 23% | 29% | -11.8 | -14.6 | -8.7 | +35.1 |
| East 4, 1 honba | Hisato Sasaki tsumo 4,000 | 13% | 12% | 15% | 60% | +11.8 | -2.5 | -3.7 | -5.7 |
| South 1 | Hisato Sasaki tsumo 3,000 | 20% | 12% | 13% | 55% | +13.3 | -3.3 | -6.6 | -3.4 |
| South 1, 1 honba | Hisato Sasaki ron 7,700 from Taro Suzuki | 29% | 10% | 11% | 50% | +21.4 | -17.6 | 0.0 | -3.8 |
| South 1, 2 honba | Hisato Sasaki tsumo 12,000 | 47% | 4% | 9% | 41% | +31.4 | -6.2 | -9.4 | -15.8 |
| South 1, 3 honba | Kenji Katsumata tsumo 1,100 | 84% | 1% | 2% | 13% | -3.0 | -2.7 | -1.4 | +7.1 |
| South 2 | Exhaustive draw | 80% | 1% | 2% | 17% | +3.6 | -0.3 | +3.3 | -6.5 |
| South 2, 1 honba | Taro Suzuki ron 12,000 from Sayaka Okada | 86% | 1% | 3% | 11% | -0.9 | +30.0 | -28.9 | -0.2 |
| South 2, 2 honba | Kenji Katsumata ron 8,000 from Sayaka Okada | 85% | 3% | 1% | 12% | -0.3 | -4.3 | -10.5 | +15.1 |
| South 3 | Hisato Sasaki tsumo 1,500 | 82% | 0% | 0% | 18% | +6.3 | +0.7 | -3.2 | -3.8 |
| South 4 | Hisato Sasaki tsumo 4,000 | 90% | 0% | 0% | 10% | +9.0 | -0.7 | -1.4 | -6.9 |