Game · 2020-21 Regular Season
11/9 Game 1
Naoki Setokuma finished 1st (+55.7pt). The game was decided in East 2: Naoki Setokuma tsumo 12,000, which moved Naoki Setokuma's expected points by +32.0.
1st-place probabilityat the start of each hand
Hand by handexpected pt change = how much the hand's result moved the expected final points
| Hands | Result | Koshin Asakura 1st-place chance | Naoki Setokuma 1st-place chance | Sayaka Kayamori 1st-place chance | Yudai Maehara 1st-place chance | Koshin Asakura Expected pt change | Naoki Setokuma Expected pt change | Sayaka Kayamori Expected pt change | Yudai Maehara Expected pt change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| East 1 | Sayaka Kayamori tsumo 1,100 | 25% | 25% | 24% | 26% | -4.3 | -0.9 | +6.0 | -0.8 |
| East 2 | Naoki Setokuma tsumo 12,000 | 22% | 24% | 28% | 26% | -11.1 | +32.0 | -9.9 | -11.0 |
| East 2, 1 honba | Sayaka Kayamori ron 2,000 from Koshin Asakura | 14% | 50% | 20% | 17% | -6.0 | -0.6 | +6.7 | -0.1 |
| East 3 | Yudai Maehara ron 2,600 from Sayaka Kayamori | 11% | 49% | 24% | 16% | -0.4 | +3.7 | -9.8 | +6.5 |
| East 4 | Koshin Asakura ron 8,000 from Yudai Maehara | 10% | 54% | 16% | 20% | +21.6 | +2.2 | -0.2 | -23.6 |
| South 1 | Yudai Maehara tsumo 8,000 | 19% | 57% | 15% | 8% | -15.0 | -0.9 | -8.5 | +24.4 |
| South 2 | Sayaka Kayamori tsumo 2,000 | 11% | 58% | 12% | 19% | -2.8 | -1.6 | +6.9 | -2.4 |
| South 3 | Yudai Maehara ron 5,200 from Sayaka Kayamori | 9% | 59% | 15% | 17% | -1.8 | +8.8 | -25.3 | +18.4 |
| South 4 | Naoki Setokuma ron 2,000 from Koshin Asakura | 3% | 76% | 2% | 20% | -1.3 | +13.5 | -7.5 | -4.7 |