Game · 2020-21 Regular Season
11/9 Game 1
Setokuma Naoki finished 1st (+55.7pt). The game was decided in East 2: Setokuma Naoki tsumo 12,000, which moved Setokuma Naoki's expected points by +30.3.
1st-place probabilityat the start of each hand
Hand by handexpected pt change = how much the hand's result moved the expected final points
| Hands | Result | Asakura Koshin 1st-place chance | Setokuma Naoki 1st-place chance | Kayamori Sayaka 1st-place chance | Maehara Yudai 1st-place chance | Asakura Koshin Expected pt change | Setokuma Naoki Expected pt change | Kayamori Sayaka Expected pt change | Maehara Yudai Expected pt change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| East 1 | Kayamori Sayaka tsumo 1,100 | 26% | 25% | 24% | 25% | -5.9 | +1.0 | +5.5 | -0.7 |
| East 2 | Setokuma Naoki tsumo 12,000 | 20% | 26% | 30% | 24% | -11.0 | +30.3 | -9.9 | -9.4 |
| East 2, 1 honba | Kayamori Sayaka ron 2,000 from Asakura Koshin | 14% | 49% | 21% | 17% | -5.7 | -2.1 | +6.7 | +1.1 |
| East 3 | Maehara Yudai ron 2,600 from Kayamori Sayaka | 11% | 48% | 24% | 17% | -1.4 | +5.8 | -10.2 | +5.7 |
| East 4 | Asakura Koshin ron 8,000 from Maehara Yudai | 10% | 54% | 16% | 20% | +22.7 | +0.9 | +0.9 | -24.5 |
| South 1 | Maehara Yudai tsumo 8,000 | 20% | 56% | 16% | 8% | -15.0 | -1.0 | -7.0 | +23.1 |
| South 2 | Kayamori Sayaka tsumo 2,000 | 12% | 57% | 13% | 19% | -2.5 | +0.2 | +5.6 | -3.2 |
| South 3 | Maehara Yudai ron 5,200 from Kayamori Sayaka | 10% | 61% | 15% | 15% | -1.4 | +6.9 | -26.9 | +21.3 |
| South 4 | Setokuma Naoki ron 2,000 from Asakura Koshin | 5% | 74% | 1% | 20% | -2.2 | +14.6 | -6.9 | -5.5 |