Game · 2020-21 Regular Season
11/16 Game 1
Matsumoto Yoshihiro finished 1st (+81.0pt). The game was decided in East 2: Matsumoto Yoshihiro tsumo 48,000, which moved Matsumoto Yoshihiro's expected points by +97.2.
1st-place probabilityat the start of each hand
Hand by handexpected pt change = how much the hand's result moved the expected final points
| Hands | Result | Kondo Seiichi 1st-place chance | Matsumoto Yoshihiro 1st-place chance | Sasaki Hisato 1st-place chance | Nikaido Aki 1st-place chance | Kondo Seiichi Expected pt change | Matsumoto Yoshihiro Expected pt change | Sasaki Hisato Expected pt change | Nikaido Aki Expected pt change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| East 1 | Kondo Seiichi ron 9,600 from Sasaki Hisato | 25% | 26% | 25% | 24% | +29.1 | -5.1 | -25.7 | +1.8 |
| East 1, 1 honba | Draw | 46% | 20% | 11% | 23% | +5.7 | -2.8 | -0.5 | -2.4 |
| East 1, 2 honba | Sasaki Hisato tsumo 8,000 | 51% | 18% | 11% | 20% | -11.8 | -4.0 | +20.2 | -4.4 |
| East 2 | Matsumoto Yoshihiro tsumo 48,000 | 42% | 19% | 20% | 20% | -37.1 | +97.2 | -30.7 | -29.4 |
| East 2, 1 honba | Draw | 2% | 95% | 1% | 2% | +1.2 | +1.1 | +0.3 | -2.6 |
| East 2, 2 honba | Draw | 2% | 95% | 2% | 1% | +5.9 | -2.3 | -2.7 | -0.9 |
| East 3, 3 honba | Draw | 2% | 95% | 1% | 1% | +3.9 | -0.1 | -4.3 | +0.5 |
| East 4, 4 honba | Nikaido Aki tsumo 3,000 | 3% | 96% | 0% | 2% | -3.5 | -2.3 | -5.7 | +11.5 |
| East 4, 5 honba | Nikaido Aki ron 7,700 from Sasaki Hisato | 3% | 95% | 1% | 1% | -2.9 | -0.5 | -16.0 | +19.4 |
| East 4, 6 honba | Nikaido Aki ron 5,800 from Kondo Seiichi | 3% | 94% | 0% | 3% | -14.3 | -0.5 | +0.3 | +14.5 |
| East 4, 7 honba | Sasaki Hisato ron 2,000 from Nikaido Aki | 1% | 93% | 0% | 6% | +1.0 | +1.5 | +6.1 | -8.6 |
| South 1 | Kondo Seiichi tsumo 6,000 | 1% | 96% | 0% | 2% | +11.3 | -1.9 | -2.4 | -7.0 |
| South 1, 1 honba | Matsumoto Yoshihiro tsumo 12,000 | 2% | 95% | 0% | 2% | -10.8 | +14.0 | -3.2 | 0.0 |
| South 2 | Sasaki Hisato ron 8,000 from Matsumoto Yoshihiro | 0% | 99% | 0% | 1% | -0.1 | -8.9 | +8.3 | +0.8 |
| South 3 | Sasaki Hisato ron 7,700 from Kondo Seiichi | 0% | 100% | 0% | 0% | -19.6 | -0.1 | +18.5 | +1.3 |
| South 3, 1 honba | Sasaki Hisato tsumo 1,500 | 0% | 99% | 0% | 1% | -2.3 | -1.0 | +4.3 | -1.0 |
| South 3, 2 honba | Sasaki Hisato tsumo 12,000 | 0% | 99% | 1% | 1% | -10.5 | -4.1 | +30.3 | -15.7 |
| South 3, 3 honba | Nikaido Aki tsumo 8,000 | 0% | 98% | 1% | 1% | -6.7 | -1.6 | -16.9 | +25.2 |
| South 4 | Draw | 0% | 99% | 0% | 1% | -1.0 | -1.2 | -2.5 | +4.8 |
| South 4, 1 honba | Nikaido Aki tsumo 7,800 | 0% | 98% | 0% | 2% | -3.8 | -4.2 | -4.2 | +12.2 |
| South 4, 2 honba | Matsumoto Yoshihiro tsumo 2,000 | 0% | 95% | 0% | 5% | -0.7 | +6.1 | -0.1 | -5.3 |