Game · 2020-21 Regular Season
11/16 Game 1
Yoshihiro Matsumoto finished 1st (+81.0pt). The game was decided in East 2: Yoshihiro Matsumoto tsumo 48,000, which moved Yoshihiro Matsumoto's expected points by +97.1.
1st-place probabilityat the start of each hand
Hand by handexpected pt change = how much the hand's result moved the expected final points
| Hands | Result | Seiichi Kondo 1st-place chance | Yoshihiro Matsumoto 1st-place chance | Hisato Sasaki 1st-place chance | Aki Nikaido 1st-place chance | Seiichi Kondo Expected pt change | Yoshihiro Matsumoto Expected pt change | Hisato Sasaki Expected pt change | Aki Nikaido Expected pt change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| East 1 | Seiichi Kondo ron 9,600 from Hisato Sasaki | 26% | 25% | 25% | 24% | +26.7 | +0.4 | -25.0 | -2.0 |
| East 1, 1 honba | Exhaustive draw | 45% | 24% | 11% | 21% | +7.0 | -6.0 | -1.5 | +0.5 |
| East 1, 2 honba | Hisato Sasaki tsumo 8,000 | 52% | 18% | 10% | 21% | -12.4 | -4.6 | +22.7 | -5.7 |
| East 2 | Yoshihiro Matsumoto tsumo 48,000 | 42% | 18% | 21% | 19% | -36.8 | +97.1 | -31.4 | -28.8 |
| East 2, 1 honba | Exhaustive draw | 2% | 95% | 1% | 2% | +2.4 | +1.6 | -1.7 | -2.2 |
| East 2, 2 honba | Exhaustive draw | 2% | 96% | 1% | 1% | +4.9 | -2.2 | -2.1 | -0.6 |
| East 3, 3 honba | Exhaustive draw | 2% | 95% | 1% | 1% | +4.6 | -0.9 | -2.2 | -1.5 |
| East 4, 4 honba | Aki Nikaido tsumo 3,000 | 4% | 94% | 1% | 1% | -3.3 | -1.9 | -6.8 | +11.9 |
| East 4, 5 honba | Aki Nikaido ron 7,700 from Hisato Sasaki | 3% | 95% | 1% | 1% | -2.2 | -0.4 | -17.2 | +19.8 |
| East 4, 6 honba | Aki Nikaido ron 5,800 from Seiichi Kondo | 3% | 93% | 0% | 4% | -15.5 | -0.6 | +1.2 | +14.9 |
| East 4, 7 honba | Hisato Sasaki ron 2,000 from Aki Nikaido | 1% | 93% | 0% | 6% | +0.7 | +2.1 | +6.5 | -9.2 |
| South 1 | Seiichi Kondo tsumo 6,000 | 1% | 97% | 0% | 2% | +10.7 | -2.7 | -2.2 | -5.8 |
| South 1, 1 honba | Yoshihiro Matsumoto tsumo 12,000 | 2% | 96% | 0% | 2% | -9.7 | +14.6 | -3.7 | -1.1 |
| South 2 | Hisato Sasaki ron 8,000 from Yoshihiro Matsumoto | 0% | 100% | 0% | 0% | -1.2 | -9.4 | +9.7 | +0.9 |
| South 3 | Hisato Sasaki ron 7,700 from Seiichi Kondo | 0% | 99% | 0% | 1% | -18.8 | -0.1 | +16.9 | +1.9 |
| South 3, 1 honba | Hisato Sasaki tsumo 1,500 | 0% | 99% | 0% | 1% | -2.8 | -0.5 | +4.5 | -1.2 |
| South 3, 2 honba | Hisato Sasaki tsumo 12,000 | 0% | 99% | 0% | 1% | -11.0 | -4.8 | +30.9 | -15.1 |
| South 3, 3 honba | Aki Nikaido tsumo 8,000 | 0% | 98% | 2% | 1% | -6.4 | -1.3 | -17.1 | +24.8 |
| South 4 | Exhaustive draw | 0% | 99% | 0% | 1% | -0.7 | -1.2 | -2.9 | +4.8 |
| South 4, 1 honba | Aki Nikaido tsumo 7,800 | 0% | 98% | 0% | 2% | -3.8 | -4.6 | -4.0 | +12.5 |
| South 4, 2 honba | Yoshihiro Matsumoto tsumo 2,000 | 0% | 94% | 0% | 6% | -0.8 | +6.6 | -0.1 | -5.7 |