Game · 2020-21 Regular Season
11/17 Game 2
Setokuma Naoki finished 1st (+46.2pt). The game was decided in South 2: Setokuma Naoki tsumo 12,000, which moved Setokuma Naoki's expected points by +30.4.
1st-place probabilityat the start of each hand
Hand by handexpected pt change = how much the hand's result moved the expected final points
| Hands | Result | Mizuhara Akina 1st-place chance | Uchikawa Kotaro 1st-place chance | Setokuma Naoki 1st-place chance | Suzuki Taro 1st-place chance | Mizuhara Akina Expected pt change | Uchikawa Kotaro Expected pt change | Setokuma Naoki Expected pt change | Suzuki Taro Expected pt change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| East 1 | Uchikawa Kotaro ron 5,200 from Mizuhara Akina | 25% | 25% | 24% | 26% | -17.8 | +15.8 | +0.7 | +1.3 |
| East 2 | Draw | 13% | 36% | 24% | 26% | -1.8 | +6.5 | -3.1 | -1.6 |
| East 2, 1 honba | Suzuki Taro ron 2,600 from Mizuhara Akina | 13% | 41% | 22% | 25% | -6.7 | -1.9 | -0.2 | +8.7 |
| East 3 | Mizuhara Akina ron 1,600 from Suzuki Taro | 9% | 39% | 21% | 30% | +2.3 | +2.9 | -0.7 | -4.5 |
| East 4 | Suzuki Taro tsumo 12,000 | 12% | 43% | 19% | 26% | -11.1 | -14.3 | -12.5 | +37.9 |
| East 4, 1 honba | Uchikawa Kotaro tsumo 12,000 | 5% | 25% | 10% | 61% | -8.1 | +37.3 | -6.1 | -23.1 |
| South 1 | Setokuma Naoki ron 1,300 from Uchikawa Kotaro | 3% | 64% | 6% | 27% | -5.0 | -0.7 | +3.0 | +2.7 |
| South 2 | Setokuma Naoki tsumo 12,000 | 1% | 64% | 6% | 29% | -6.4 | -14.9 | +30.4 | -9.2 |
| South 3 | Mizuhara Akina ron 8,000 from Uchikawa Kotaro | 0% | 50% | 24% | 26% | +10.5 | -27.6 | +6.8 | +10.2 |
| South 4 | Mizuhara Akina tsumo 12,000 | 1% | 20% | 38% | 41% | +49.5 | -28.9 | +28.3 | -48.9 |