Game · 2020-21 Regular Season
11/19 Game 1
Sayaka Kayamori finished 1st (+60.1pt). The game was decided in East 3: Sayaka Kayamori ron 12,000 from Naoki Setokuma, which moved Sayaka Kayamori's expected points by +33.2.
1st-place probabilityat the start of each hand
Hand by handexpected pt change = how much the hand's result moved the expected final points
| Hands | Result | Naoki Setokuma 1st-place chance | Ken Sonoda 1st-place chance | Sayaka Kayamori 1st-place chance | Sho Shiratori 1st-place chance | Naoki Setokuma Expected pt change | Ken Sonoda Expected pt change | Sayaka Kayamori Expected pt change | Sho Shiratori Expected pt change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| East 1 | Exhaustive draw | 24% | 24% | 25% | 26% | -3.6 | +4.4 | +2.6 | -3.4 |
| East 2, 1 honba | Sho Shiratori tsumo 2,700 | 22% | 28% | 27% | 23% | -2.0 | -5.9 | -3.0 | +10.9 |
| East 3 | Sayaka Kayamori ron 12,000 from Naoki Setokuma | 20% | 23% | 26% | 30% | -29.6 | -2.3 | +33.2 | -1.3 |
| East 3, 1 honba | Ken Sonoda ron 8,000 from Sho Shiratori | 6% | 17% | 51% | 26% | -0.2 | +25.8 | -4.0 | -21.7 |
| East 4 | Exhaustive draw | 4% | 37% | 45% | 13% | 0.0 | -3.5 | -2.9 | +6.4 |
| East 4, 1 honba | Sayaka Kayamori ron 3,900 from Naoki Setokuma | 5% | 34% | 43% | 18% | -11.2 | -2.1 | +18.8 | -5.5 |
| South 1 | Ken Sonoda ron 8,000 from Sho Shiratori | 2% | 25% | 63% | 9% | -0.6 | +22.6 | -3.8 | -18.2 |
| South 2 | Naoki Setokuma tsumo 8,000 | 0% | 46% | 51% | 3% | +18.4 | -7.5 | +0.9 | -11.8 |
| South 3 | Exhaustive draw | 1% | 39% | 58% | 2% | +0.1 | +10.3 | -8.6 | -1.7 |
| South 4, 1 honba | Sho Shiratori tsumo 12,000 | 0% | 58% | 40% | 2% | -20.2 | -7.0 | -6.4 | +33.6 |
| South 4, 2 honba | Sayaka Kayamori ron 5,200 from Ken Sonoda | 0% | 53% | 38% | 9% | -1.3 | -25.2 | +32.9 | -6.4 |