Game · 2020-21 Regular Season
11/19 Game 1
Kayamori Sayaka finished 1st (+60.1pt). The game was decided in South 4, 2 honba: Kayamori Sayaka ron 5,200 from Sonoda Ken, which moved Kayamori Sayaka's expected points by +33.4.
1st-place probabilityat the start of each hand
Hand by handexpected pt change = how much the hand's result moved the expected final points
| Hands | Result | Setokuma Naoki 1st-place chance | Sonoda Ken 1st-place chance | Kayamori Sayaka 1st-place chance | Shiratori Sho 1st-place chance | Setokuma Naoki Expected pt change | Sonoda Ken Expected pt change | Kayamori Sayaka Expected pt change | Shiratori Sho Expected pt change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| East 1 | Draw | 25% | 25% | 25% | 25% | -5.0 | +4.8 | +2.2 | -2.0 |
| East 2, 1 honba | Shiratori Sho tsumo 2,700 | 21% | 29% | 27% | 23% | -3.0 | -7.9 | -0.6 | +11.6 |
| East 3 | Kayamori Sayaka ron 12,000 from Setokuma Naoki | 19% | 22% | 27% | 32% | -27.9 | +0.1 | +30.1 | -2.4 |
| East 3, 1 honba | Sonoda Ken ron 8,000 from Shiratori Sho | 6% | 19% | 49% | 26% | +0.4 | +23.0 | -0.4 | -23.0 |
| East 4 | Draw | 6% | 35% | 47% | 12% | +1.7 | -2.6 | -4.3 | +5.3 |
| East 4, 1 honba | Kayamori Sayaka ron 3,900 from Setokuma Naoki | 7% | 33% | 44% | 16% | -12.9 | -3.4 | +18.9 | -2.6 |
| South 1 | Sonoda Ken ron 8,000 from Shiratori Sho | 2% | 25% | 64% | 9% | -0.3 | +22.7 | -3.0 | -19.4 |
| South 2 | Setokuma Naoki tsumo 8,000 | 0% | 44% | 53% | 3% | +17.3 | -7.4 | +0.4 | -10.3 |
| South 3 | Draw | 1% | 38% | 59% | 2% | 0.0 | +12.2 | -9.8 | -2.4 |
| South 4, 1 honba | Shiratori Sho tsumo 12,000 | 0% | 59% | 40% | 1% | -19.9 | -7.9 | -6.5 | +34.3 |
| South 4, 2 honba | Kayamori Sayaka ron 5,200 from Sonoda Ken | 0% | 52% | 37% | 10% | -1.1 | -24.8 | +33.4 | -7.5 |