Game · 2020-21 Regular Season
11/20 Game 2
Kenji Katsumata finished 1st (+78.0pt). The game was decided in East 1: Kenji Katsumata tsumo 18,000, which moved Kenji Katsumata's expected points by +43.6.
1st-place probabilityat the start of each hand
Hand by handexpected pt change = how much the hand's result moved the expected final points
| Hands | Result | Kenji Katsumata 1st-place chance | Hisato Sasaki 1st-place chance | Koshin Asakura 1st-place chance | Makoto Sawazaki 1st-place chance | Kenji Katsumata Expected pt change | Hisato Sasaki Expected pt change | Koshin Asakura Expected pt change | Makoto Sawazaki Expected pt change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| East 1 | Kenji Katsumata tsumo 18,000 | 25% | 26% | 24% | 26% | +43.6 | -16.9 | -13.5 | -13.3 |
| East 1, 1 honba | Koshin Asakura ron 1,000 from Kenji Katsumata | 60% | 12% | 13% | 15% | -2.3 | +1.8 | +2.6 | -2.2 |
| East 2 | Hisato Sasaki tsumo 7,800 | 60% | 14% | 13% | 14% | -6.1 | +18.3 | -7.5 | -4.7 |
| East 2, 1 honba | Hisato Sasaki ron 7,700 from Koshin Asakura | 53% | 23% | 12% | 12% | -3.2 | +20.2 | -16.0 | -1.1 |
| East 2, 2 honba | Hisato Sasaki ron 5,800 from Koshin Asakura | 46% | 38% | 6% | 10% | -3.8 | +13.6 | -10.8 | +0.9 |
| East 2, 3 honba | Exhaustive draw | 39% | 48% | 3% | 10% | -1.5 | 0.0 | +4.3 | -2.8 |
| East 3, 4 honba | Exhaustive draw | 36% | 51% | 4% | 9% | +8.6 | -2.1 | -6.1 | -0.5 |
| East 4, 5 honba | Kenji Katsumata tsumo 1,500 | 45% | 45% | 2% | 8% | +13.7 | -3.9 | -3.5 | -6.3 |
| South 1 | Kenji Katsumata tsumo 18,000 | 61% | 36% | 1% | 2% | +31.1 | -18.0 | -6.4 | -6.7 |
| South 1, 1 honba | Exhaustive draw | 93% | 6% | 0% | 1% | +1.3 | -3.4 | +3.8 | -1.7 |
| South 1, 2 honba | Makoto Sawazaki tsumo 16,000 | 94% | 5% | 0% | 1% | -10.4 | -9.9 | -9.5 | +29.9 |
| South 2 | Hisato Sasaki ron 4,800 from Makoto Sawazaki | 90% | 6% | 1% | 4% | -1.0 | +13.2 | 0.0 | -12.2 |
| South 2, 1 honba | Kenji Katsumata ron 1,000 from Makoto Sawazaki | 89% | 9% | 0% | 2% | +5.2 | -3.3 | -0.1 | -1.8 |
| South 3 | Kenji Katsumata ron 1,300 from Koshin Asakura | 97% | 2% | 0% | 1% | +2.3 | +1.4 | -4.1 | +0.4 |
| South 4 | Hisato Sasaki ron 1,300 from Koshin Asakura | 98% | 1% | 0% | 1% | +0.7 | +2.9 | -0.8 | -2.8 |