Game · 2020-21 Regular Season
11/24 Game 1
Saki Kurosawa finished 1st (+57.0pt). The game was decided in East 2, 1 honba: Saki Kurosawa tsumo 5,200, which moved Saki Kurosawa's expected points by +25.4.
1st-place probabilityat the start of each hand
Hand by handexpected pt change = how much the hand's result moved the expected final points
| Hands | Result | Saki Kurosawa 1st-place chance | Mari Takamiya 1st-place chance | Aiko Hinata 1st-place chance | Aki Nikaido 1st-place chance | Saki Kurosawa Expected pt change | Mari Takamiya Expected pt change | Aiko Hinata Expected pt change | Aki Nikaido Expected pt change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| East 1 | Mari Takamiya ron 2,600 from Aiko Hinata | 25% | 25% | 23% | 27% | -2.0 | +9.6 | -7.9 | +0.4 |
| East 2 | Exhaustive draw | 23% | 31% | 20% | 26% | -3.1 | +2.8 | +3.0 | -2.7 |
| East 2, 1 honba | Saki Kurosawa tsumo 5,200 | 21% | 34% | 22% | 23% | +25.4 | -11.8 | -6.2 | -7.3 |
| East 3 | Exhaustive draw | 41% | 24% | 17% | 19% | +0.5 | +0.5 | -1.0 | 0.0 |
| East 4, 1 honba | Exhaustive draw | 41% | 24% | 16% | 19% | +4.2 | -6.8 | +0.3 | +2.3 |
| East 4, 2 honba | Aki Nikaido ron 2,000 from Mari Takamiya | 46% | 19% | 16% | 20% | -1.6 | -10.5 | -1.0 | +13.2 |
| East 4, 3 honba | Exhaustive draw | 43% | 14% | 15% | 28% | 0.0 | +6.2 | -2.7 | -3.5 |
| South 1, 4 honba | Exhaustive draw | 43% | 18% | 14% | 25% | -2.4 | -2.3 | +5.1 | -0.3 |
| South 2, 5 honba | Mari Takamiya tsumo 1,500 | 41% | 17% | 16% | 25% | -4.4 | +14.6 | -5.5 | -4.7 |
| South 2, 6 honba | Saki Kurosawa tsumo 1,500 | 37% | 25% | 14% | 24% | +16.6 | -7.3 | -4.0 | -5.2 |
| South 3 | Aiko Hinata ron 2,900 from Saki Kurosawa | 59% | 14% | 12% | 15% | -8.3 | +0.6 | +9.8 | -2.1 |
| South 3, 1 honba | Exhaustive draw | 48% | 18% | 17% | 18% | +18.1 | -3.3 | -9.2 | -5.6 |
| South 4, 2 honba | Saki Kurosawa ron 2,000 from Mari Takamiya | 77% | 7% | 3% | 13% | +14.4 | -11.7 | +21.7 | -24.3 |