Game · 2020-21 Regular Season
11/27 Game 1
Satoshi Fujisaki finished 1st (+48.3pt). The game was decided in South 4: Jun Murakami tsumo 2,700, which moved Satoshi Fujisaki's expected points by +21.9.
1st-place probabilityat the start of each hand
Hand by handexpected pt change = how much the hand's result moved the expected final points
| Hands | Result | Jun Murakami 1st-place chance | Makoto Sawazaki 1st-place chance | Satoshi Fujisaki 1st-place chance | Saki Kurosawa 1st-place chance | Jun Murakami Expected pt change | Makoto Sawazaki Expected pt change | Satoshi Fujisaki Expected pt change | Saki Kurosawa Expected pt change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| East 1 | Exhaustive draw | 26% | 25% | 25% | 24% | -5.6 | -4.4 | +9.2 | +0.8 |
| East 2, 1 honba | Exhaustive draw | 23% | 23% | 30% | 25% | +4.9 | -3.5 | -2.3 | +1.0 |
| East 3, 2 honba | Satoshi Fujisaki ron 2,900 from Saki Kurosawa | 25% | 19% | 29% | 27% | -2.5 | -1.3 | +13.9 | -10.0 |
| East 3, 3 honba | Makoto Sawazaki ron 3,900 from Jun Murakami | 22% | 18% | 40% | 21% | -14.5 | +13.4 | +1.0 | +0.1 |
| East 4 | Satoshi Fujisaki ron 1,300 from Jun Murakami | 14% | 26% | 41% | 20% | -3.7 | +4.1 | +3.5 | -3.9 |
| South 1 | Saki Kurosawa tsumo 12,000 | 12% | 29% | 44% | 15% | -20.0 | -12.5 | -7.9 | +40.3 |
| South 2 | Jun Murakami ron 5,200 from Saki Kurosawa | 3% | 17% | 34% | 47% | +13.5 | -2.6 | +5.7 | -16.6 |
| South 3 | Jun Murakami tsumo 2,700 | 9% | 17% | 43% | 32% | +5.4 | -5.8 | +4.2 | -3.8 |
| South 4 | Jun Murakami tsumo 2,700 | 12% | 12% | 54% | 22% | +5.2 | -24.7 | +21.9 | -2.3 |