Game · 2020-21 Regular Season
11/27 Game 1
Fujisaki Satoshi finished 1st (+48.3pt). The game was decided in South 4: Murakami Jun tsumo 2,700, which moved Fujisaki Satoshi's expected points by +22.9.
1st-place probabilityat the start of each hand
Hand by handexpected pt change = how much the hand's result moved the expected final points
| Hands | Result | Murakami Jun 1st-place chance | Sawazaki Makoto 1st-place chance | Fujisaki Satoshi 1st-place chance | Kurosawa Saki 1st-place chance | Murakami Jun Expected pt change | Sawazaki Makoto Expected pt change | Fujisaki Satoshi Expected pt change | Kurosawa Saki Expected pt change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| East 1 | Draw | 25% | 26% | 25% | 24% | -4.6 | -3.8 | +9.0 | -0.6 |
| East 2, 1 honba | Draw | 22% | 23% | 31% | 24% | +5.2 | -4.9 | -3.2 | +2.9 |
| East 3, 2 honba | Fujisaki Satoshi ron 2,900 from Kurosawa Saki | 26% | 18% | 29% | 26% | -5.0 | +0.9 | +13.7 | -9.6 |
| East 3, 3 honba | Sawazaki Makoto ron 3,900 from Murakami Jun | 21% | 19% | 40% | 20% | -10.4 | +12.4 | -0.9 | -1.1 |
| East 4 | Fujisaki Satoshi ron 1,300 from Murakami Jun | 15% | 27% | 38% | 20% | -5.5 | +1.6 | +8.1 | -4.3 |
| South 1 | Kurosawa Saki tsumo 12,000 | 12% | 26% | 47% | 15% | -20.9 | -9.3 | -9.4 | +39.6 |
| South 2 | Murakami Jun ron 5,200 from Kurosawa Saki | 2% | 18% | 34% | 45% | +15.1 | -2.6 | +6.5 | -19.0 |
| South 3 | Murakami Jun tsumo 2,700 | 9% | 18% | 45% | 28% | +3.7 | -5.0 | +1.9 | -0.6 |
| South 4 | Murakami Jun tsumo 2,700 | 12% | 14% | 53% | 21% | +5.9 | -26.6 | +22.9 | -2.3 |