Game · 2020-21 Regular Season
12/3 Game 2
Ken Sonoda finished 1st (+68.0pt). The game was decided in South 3, 2 honba: Ken Sonoda ron 12,000 from Takaharu Ooi, which moved Ken Sonoda's expected points by +42.2.
1st-place probabilityat the start of each hand
Hand by handexpected pt change = how much the hand's result moved the expected final points
| Hands | Result | Naoki Setokuma 1st-place chance | Takaharu Ooi 1st-place chance | Ken Sonoda 1st-place chance | Nobuhiro Ishibashi 1st-place chance | Naoki Setokuma Expected pt change | Takaharu Ooi Expected pt change | Ken Sonoda Expected pt change | Nobuhiro Ishibashi Expected pt change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| East 1 | Naoki Setokuma tsumo 12,000 | 25% | 25% | 24% | 25% | +31.0 | -9.5 | -10.9 | -10.5 |
| East 1, 1 honba | Exhaustive draw | 48% | 18% | 17% | 17% | -5.3 | +2.9 | -2.7 | +5.2 |
| East 2, 2 honba | Exhaustive draw | 44% | 19% | 16% | 21% | -3.7 | +5.4 | +2.2 | -3.9 |
| East 2, 3 honba | Ken Sonoda ron 2,000 from Naoki Setokuma | 40% | 23% | 17% | 19% | -4.5 | -4.1 | +9.3 | -0.7 |
| East 3 | Exhaustive draw | 37% | 20% | 24% | 19% | +7.6 | -1.6 | -5.6 | -0.4 |
| East 4, 1 honba | Ken Sonoda ron 5,200 from Nobuhiro Ishibashi | 45% | 18% | 18% | 19% | -0.3 | -0.5 | +21.4 | -20.6 |
| South 1 | Nobuhiro Ishibashi tsumo 12,000 | 43% | 17% | 32% | 8% | -17.7 | -11.7 | -11.9 | +41.3 |
| South 2 | Exhaustive draw | 28% | 13% | 26% | 33% | +10.9 | -5.3 | -4.4 | -1.2 |
| South 3, 1 honba | Exhaustive draw | 39% | 10% | 22% | 30% | -3.2 | -4.2 | +13.1 | -5.8 |
| South 3, 2 honba | Ken Sonoda ron 12,000 from Takaharu Ooi | 36% | 7% | 30% | 27% | -10.8 | -26.3 | +42.2 | -5.2 |
| South 3, 3 honba | Nobuhiro Ishibashi ron 1,000 from Naoki Setokuma | 10% | 0% | 78% | 12% | -8.3 | -0.4 | +3.4 | +5.3 |
| South 4 | Ken Sonoda tsumo 4,000 | 2% | 0% | 87% | 11% | -11.4 | -0.9 | +11.8 | +0.5 |