Game · 2020-21 Regular Season
12/4 Game 2
Hisato Sasaki finished 1st (+92.1pt). The game was decided in East 4: Hisato Sasaki tsumo 24,000, which moved Hisato Sasaki's expected points by +57.4.
1st-place probabilityat the start of each hand
Hand by handexpected pt change = how much the hand's result moved the expected final points
| Hands | Result | Aki Nikaido 1st-place chance | Yuumi Uotani 1st-place chance | Makoto Sawazaki 1st-place chance | Hisato Sasaki 1st-place chance | Aki Nikaido Expected pt change | Yuumi Uotani Expected pt change | Makoto Sawazaki Expected pt change | Hisato Sasaki Expected pt change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| East 1 | Exhaustive draw | 24% | 23% | 26% | 26% | +2.6 | +3.7 | +1.2 | -7.5 |
| East 1, 1 honba | Hisato Sasaki ron 8,000 from Aki Nikaido | 26% | 26% | 28% | 20% | -23.2 | +0.1 | -0.5 | +23.6 |
| East 2 | Aki Nikaido tsumo 8,000 | 12% | 25% | 25% | 38% | +26.1 | -13.3 | -4.7 | -8.1 |
| East 3 | Aki Nikaido ron 8,000 from Makoto Sawazaki | 28% | 18% | 23% | 31% | +23.0 | +1.8 | -23.6 | -1.2 |
| East 4 | Hisato Sasaki tsumo 24,000 | 47% | 16% | 11% | 27% | -24.5 | -18.2 | -14.7 | +57.4 |
| East 4, 1 honba | Yuumi Uotani tsumo 4,000 | 12% | 4% | 2% | 82% | -3.9 | +9.4 | -3.4 | -2.1 |
| South 1 | Exhaustive draw | 8% | 5% | 2% | 85% | +3.5 | -2.9 | +2.6 | -3.2 |
| South 1, 1 honba | Yuumi Uotani tsumo 2,000 | 12% | 5% | 2% | 81% | -9.0 | +8.8 | -2.2 | +2.4 |
| South 2 | Hisato Sasaki tsumo 1,500 | 5% | 6% | 2% | 87% | +0.7 | -4.1 | -2.1 | +5.6 |
| South 3 | Aki Nikaido ron 3,900 from Makoto Sawazaki | 2% | 1% | 2% | 96% | +10.3 | -0.9 | -11.0 | +1.5 |
| South 4 | Hisato Sasaki tsumo 18,000 | 1% | 0% | 0% | 99% | -6.4 | -5.7 | -7.1 | +19.3 |
| South 4, 1 honba | Hisato Sasaki tsumo 6,000 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 100% | -2.3 | -2.2 | -3.1 | +7.5 |
| South 4, 2 honba | Aki Nikaido tsumo 5,200 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 100% | +10.4 | -5.1 | -1.2 | -4.1 |