Game · 2020-21 Regular Season
12/4 Game 2
Sasaki Hisato finished 1st (+92.1pt). The game was decided in East 4: Sasaki Hisato tsumo 24,000, which moved Sasaki Hisato's expected points by +57.3.
1st-place probabilityat the start of each hand
Hand by handexpected pt change = how much the hand's result moved the expected final points
| Hands | Result | Nikaido Aki 1st-place chance | Uotani Yuumi 1st-place chance | Sawazaki Makoto 1st-place chance | Sasaki Hisato 1st-place chance | Nikaido Aki Expected pt change | Uotani Yuumi Expected pt change | Sawazaki Makoto Expected pt change | Sasaki Hisato Expected pt change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| East 1 | Draw | 25% | 25% | 25% | 25% | +3.3 | +2.0 | +1.5 | -6.8 |
| East 1, 1 honba | Sasaki Hisato ron 8,000 from Nikaido Aki | 26% | 27% | 26% | 21% | -23.5 | -0.7 | +0.4 | +23.8 |
| East 2 | Nikaido Aki tsumo 8,000 | 12% | 25% | 26% | 37% | +25.7 | -12.3 | -5.8 | -7.6 |
| East 3 | Nikaido Aki ron 8,000 from Sawazaki Makoto | 28% | 18% | 21% | 33% | +22.1 | +1.8 | -22.3 | -1.6 |
| East 4 | Sasaki Hisato tsumo 24,000 | 46% | 16% | 10% | 27% | -23.1 | -18.5 | -15.7 | +57.3 |
| East 4, 1 honba | Uotani Yuumi tsumo 4,000 | 11% | 3% | 2% | 83% | -3.7 | +9.4 | -3.1 | -2.6 |
| South 1 | Draw | 9% | 5% | 2% | 84% | +2.2 | -2.8 | +3.3 | -2.7 |
| South 1, 1 honba | Uotani Yuumi tsumo 2,000 | 11% | 5% | 2% | 81% | -8.8 | +8.0 | -2.2 | +3.0 |
| South 2 | Sasaki Hisato tsumo 1,500 | 4% | 6% | 2% | 88% | 0.0 | -2.4 | -3.6 | +5.9 |
| South 3 | Nikaido Aki ron 3,900 from Sawazaki Makoto | 1% | 1% | 1% | 97% | +11.0 | -2.1 | -9.7 | +0.8 |
| South 4 | Sasaki Hisato tsumo 18,000 | 1% | 0% | 0% | 99% | -6.7 | -5.2 | -7.1 | +19.0 |
| South 4, 1 honba | Sasaki Hisato tsumo 6,000 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 100% | -2.2 | -2.0 | -3.4 | +7.6 |
| South 4, 2 honba | Nikaido Aki tsumo 5,200 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 100% | +10.6 | -5.5 | -1.2 | -3.9 |