Most differences in results are within chance.They do not justify criticizing players.

Game · 2020-21 Regular Season

12/4 Game 2

Hisato Sasaki finished 1st (+92.1pt). The game was decided in East 4: Hisato Sasaki tsumo 24,000, which moved Hisato Sasaki's expected points by +57.4.

1st-place probabilityat the start of each hand

0%25%50%75%100%East 1East 4South 3End● Hisato Sasaki● Aki Nikaido● Yuumi Uotani● Makoto Sawazaki0%25%50%75%100%East 1South 1End● Hisato● Aki● Yuumi● Makoto
The chance of finishing 1st, at the start of each hand (estimated by simulation). Shaded: the hand that decided this game.

Hand by handexpected pt change = how much the hand's result moved the expected final points

HandsResultAki Nikaido
1st-place chance
Yuumi Uotani
1st-place chance
Makoto Sawazaki
1st-place chance
Hisato Sasaki
1st-place chance
Aki Nikaido
Expected pt change
Yuumi Uotani
Expected pt change
Makoto Sawazaki
Expected pt change
Hisato Sasaki
Expected pt change
East 1Exhaustive draw24%23%26%26%+2.6+3.7+1.2-7.5
East 1, 1 honbaHisato Sasaki ron 8,000 from Aki Nikaido26%26%28%20%-23.2+0.1-0.5+23.6
East 2Aki Nikaido tsumo 8,00012%25%25%38%+26.1-13.3-4.7-8.1
East 3Aki Nikaido ron 8,000 from Makoto Sawazaki28%18%23%31%+23.0+1.8-23.6-1.2
East 4Hisato Sasaki tsumo 24,00047%16%11%27%-24.5-18.2-14.7+57.4
East 4, 1 honbaYuumi Uotani tsumo 4,00012%4%2%82%-3.9+9.4-3.4-2.1
South 1Exhaustive draw8%5%2%85%+3.5-2.9+2.6-3.2
South 1, 1 honbaYuumi Uotani tsumo 2,00012%5%2%81%-9.0+8.8-2.2+2.4
South 2Hisato Sasaki tsumo 1,5005%6%2%87%+0.7-4.1-2.1+5.6
South 3Aki Nikaido ron 3,900 from Makoto Sawazaki2%1%2%96%+10.3-0.9-11.0+1.5
South 4Hisato Sasaki tsumo 18,0001%0%0%99%-6.4-5.7-7.1+19.3
South 4, 1 honbaHisato Sasaki tsumo 6,0000%0%0%100%-2.3-2.2-3.1+7.5
South 4, 2 honbaAki Nikaido tsumo 5,2000%0%0%100%+10.4-5.1-1.2-4.1

All 2020-21 games / This game's record (M League Haifu)