Game · 2020-21 Regular Season
12/14 Game 1
Sayaka Okada finished 1st (+67.9pt). The game was decided in East 2: Sayaka Okada ron 12,000 from Nobuhiro Ishibashi, which moved Sayaka Okada's expected points by +33.9.
1st-place probabilityat the start of each hand
Hand by handexpected pt change = how much the hand's result moved the expected final points
| Hands | Result | Naoki Setokuma 1st-place chance | Nobuhiro Ishibashi 1st-place chance | Mari Takamiya 1st-place chance | Sayaka Okada 1st-place chance | Naoki Setokuma Expected pt change | Nobuhiro Ishibashi Expected pt change | Mari Takamiya Expected pt change | Sayaka Okada Expected pt change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| East 1 | Sayaka Okada ron 5,200 from Naoki Setokuma | 24% | 25% | 25% | 27% | -15.1 | +1.3 | +0.4 | +13.4 |
| East 2 | Sayaka Okada ron 12,000 from Nobuhiro Ishibashi | 14% | 25% | 25% | 36% | +1.9 | -33.2 | -2.7 | +33.9 |
| East 3 | Naoki Setokuma ron 8,000 from Mari Takamiya | 11% | 5% | 17% | 67% | +21.5 | -1.6 | -21.3 | +1.4 |
| East 4 | Nobuhiro Ishibashi ron 1,300 from Sayaka Okada | 20% | 4% | 6% | 70% | -2.9 | +6.6 | -0.5 | -3.2 |
| South 1 | Exhaustive draw | 19% | 5% | 7% | 69% | +2.4 | -5.2 | +2.3 | +0.5 |
| South 1, 1 honba | Naoki Setokuma ron 2,000 from Nobuhiro Ishibashi | 20% | 5% | 7% | 69% | +12.0 | -7.4 | -3.1 | -1.5 |
| South 1, 2 honba | Exhaustive draw | 28% | 3% | 6% | 64% | -6.4 | -5.1 | +4.1 | +7.4 |
| South 2, 3 honba | Nobuhiro Ishibashi ron 7,700 from Mari Takamiya | 17% | 2% | 5% | 76% | +0.2 | +21.0 | -21.0 | -0.1 |
| South 2, 4 honba | Exhaustive draw | 18% | 5% | 2% | 75% | -2.5 | +0.2 | +3.8 | -1.5 |
| South 2, 5 honba | Exhaustive draw | 17% | 5% | 4% | 74% | -1.5 | +7.1 | -1.9 | -3.7 |
| South 2, 6 honba | Naoki Setokuma ron 3,900 from Mari Takamiya | 18% | 8% | 4% | 70% | +22.4 | -6.2 | -12.7 | -3.5 |
| South 3 | Sayaka Okada ron 8,000 from Nobuhiro Ishibashi | 38% | 1% | 2% | 59% | -10.2 | -8.9 | -2.5 | +21.6 |
| South 4 | Exhaustive draw | 9% | 0% | 0% | 91% | -4.3 | +2.1 | +0.6 | +1.6 |