Game · 2020-21 Regular Season
12/15 Game 1
Kenji Katsumata finished 1st (+62.3pt). The game was decided in East 4: Kenji Katsumata tsumo 12,000, which moved Kenji Katsumata's expected points by +31.5.
1st-place probabilityat the start of each hand
Hand by handexpected pt change = how much the hand's result moved the expected final points
| Hands | Result | Kanako Maruyama 1st-place chance | Sho Shiratori 1st-place chance | Kenji Katsumata 1st-place chance | Akira Wakutsu 1st-place chance | Kanako Maruyama Expected pt change | Sho Shiratori Expected pt change | Kenji Katsumata Expected pt change | Akira Wakutsu Expected pt change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| East 1 | Kanako Maruyama tsumo 6,000 | 27% | 23% | 27% | 24% | +16.6 | -5.2 | -4.1 | -7.3 |
| East 1, 1 honba | Kenji Katsumata tsumo 4,000 | 37% | 20% | 23% | 19% | -7.1 | -1.6 | +9.7 | -1.0 |
| East 2 | Kenji Katsumata ron 8,000 from Sho Shiratori | 32% | 20% | 29% | 19% | +0.8 | -22.3 | +20.8 | +0.7 |
| East 3 | Akira Wakutsu tsumo 4,000 | 30% | 8% | 44% | 19% | -2.1 | -2.8 | -3.6 | +8.5 |
| East 4 | Kenji Katsumata tsumo 12,000 | 28% | 7% | 42% | 23% | -8.1 | -6.6 | +31.5 | -16.9 |
| South 1 | Exhaustive draw | 13% | 2% | 77% | 7% | +3.6 | +4.0 | -3.7 | -3.8 |
| South 1, 1 honba | Akira Wakutsu ron 1,000 from Kanako Maruyama | 17% | 4% | 72% | 8% | -6.0 | -1.9 | +4.7 | +3.2 |
| South 2 | Akira Wakutsu ron 3,900 from Kanako Maruyama | 9% | 3% | 81% | 7% | -9.6 | -4.9 | +4.3 | +10.1 |
| South 3 | Exhaustive draw | 3% | 0% | 90% | 7% | -5.9 | -0.7 | -1.6 | +8.2 |
| South 4, 1 honba | Sho Shiratori ron 8,000 from Akira Wakutsu | 1% | 0% | 92% | 7% | -2.9 | +45.0 | +3.6 | -45.7 |