Game · 2020-21 Regular Season
12/15 Game 2
Kayamori Sayaka finished 1st (+67.1pt). The game was decided in South 3, 1 honba: Kayamori Sayaka ron 16,000 from Suzuki Taro, which moved Kayamori Sayaka's expected points by +47.4.
1st-place probabilityat the start of each hand
Hand by handexpected pt change = how much the hand's result moved the expected final points
| Hands | Result | Kayamori Sayaka 1st-place chance | Katsumata Kenji 1st-place chance | Suzuki Taro 1st-place chance | Hinata Aiko 1st-place chance | Kayamori Sayaka Expected pt change | Katsumata Kenji Expected pt change | Suzuki Taro Expected pt change | Hinata Aiko Expected pt change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| East 1 | Hinata Aiko ron 5,200 from Kayamori Sayaka | 26% | 25% | 26% | 24% | -15.4 | +0.7 | -0.9 | +15.6 |
| East 2 | Kayamori Sayaka ron 2,600 from Katsumata Kenji | 16% | 25% | 26% | 34% | +6.6 | -8.9 | +0.3 | +2.0 |
| East 3 | Kayamori Sayaka tsumo 5,200 | 18% | 19% | 26% | 37% | +18.1 | -8.3 | -10.1 | +0.3 |
| East 4 | Suzuki Taro ron 1,000 from Kayamori Sayaka | 30% | 13% | 18% | 38% | -1.8 | +2.3 | +2.1 | -2.6 |
| South 1 | Katsumata Kenji ron 8,000 from Hinata Aiko | 30% | 16% | 20% | 35% | +0.7 | +26.7 | -0.6 | -26.8 |
| South 2 | Katsumata Kenji ron 5,800 from Hinata Aiko | 31% | 34% | 19% | 17% | -2.6 | +18.3 | +1.0 | -16.7 |
| South 2, 1 honba | Draw | 23% | 52% | 17% | 8% | -9.7 | +3.8 | +3.8 | +2.2 |
| South 2, 2 honba | Kayamori Sayaka ron 8,000 from Hinata Aiko | 17% | 56% | 18% | 8% | +31.3 | -8.6 | -4.0 | -18.7 |
| South 3 | Suzuki Taro ron 2,900 from Kayamori Sayaka | 44% | 40% | 13% | 3% | -10.4 | +1.3 | +9.6 | -0.5 |
| South 3, 1 honba | Kayamori Sayaka ron 16,000 from Suzuki Taro | 32% | 45% | 20% | 3% | +47.4 | -12.6 | -37.1 | +2.3 |
| South 4 | Hinata Aiko tsumo 3,000 | 93% | 5% | 0% | 2% | -0.6 | -1.4 | -6.1 | +8.0 |
| South 4, 1 honba | Hinata Aiko tsumo 6,000 | 94% | 4% | 0% | 2% | -2.8 | -3.4 | -10.8 | +17.1 |
| South 4, 2 honba | Kayamori Sayaka ron 2,000 from Katsumata Kenji | 93% | 4% | 0% | 4% | +5.8 | -1.3 | -1.0 | -3.4 |