Game · 2020-21 Regular Season
12/15 Game 2
Sayaka Kayamori finished 1st (+67.1pt). The game was decided in South 3, 1 honba: Sayaka Kayamori ron 16,000 from Taro Suzuki, which moved Sayaka Kayamori's expected points by +46.5.
1st-place probabilityat the start of each hand
Hand by handexpected pt change = how much the hand's result moved the expected final points
| Hands | Result | Sayaka Kayamori 1st-place chance | Kenji Katsumata 1st-place chance | Taro Suzuki 1st-place chance | Aiko Hinata 1st-place chance | Sayaka Kayamori Expected pt change | Kenji Katsumata Expected pt change | Taro Suzuki Expected pt change | Aiko Hinata Expected pt change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| East 1 | Aiko Hinata ron 5,200 from Sayaka Kayamori | 27% | 24% | 25% | 25% | -19.1 | +1.2 | +1.8 | +16.2 |
| East 2 | Sayaka Kayamori ron 2,600 from Kenji Katsumata | 14% | 25% | 26% | 36% | +11.0 | -10.9 | -0.8 | +0.7 |
| East 3 | Sayaka Kayamori tsumo 5,200 | 21% | 17% | 25% | 37% | +16.2 | -4.4 | -9.8 | -1.9 |
| East 4 | Taro Suzuki ron 1,000 from Sayaka Kayamori | 32% | 15% | 17% | 36% | -1.5 | -0.7 | +5.4 | -3.2 |
| South 1 | Kenji Katsumata ron 8,000 from Aiko Hinata | 31% | 16% | 21% | 32% | -1.1 | +25.8 | -0.4 | -24.3 |
| South 2 | Kenji Katsumata ron 5,800 from Aiko Hinata | 29% | 32% | 21% | 18% | -1.5 | +20.0 | -2.0 | -16.4 |
| South 2, 1 honba | Exhaustive draw | 23% | 51% | 17% | 9% | -8.9 | +3.6 | +4.0 | +1.4 |
| South 2, 2 honba | Sayaka Kayamori ron 8,000 from Aiko Hinata | 17% | 57% | 18% | 8% | +31.9 | -8.5 | -4.8 | -18.6 |
| South 3 | Taro Suzuki ron 2,900 from Sayaka Kayamori | 45% | 40% | 12% | 3% | -10.2 | +1.3 | +10.0 | -1.1 |
| South 3, 1 honba | Sayaka Kayamori ron 16,000 from Taro Suzuki | 34% | 44% | 20% | 3% | +46.5 | -12.3 | -36.8 | +2.6 |
| South 4 | Aiko Hinata tsumo 3,000 | 94% | 5% | 0% | 1% | -1.0 | -1.7 | -5.5 | +8.2 |
| South 4, 1 honba | Aiko Hinata tsumo 6,000 | 94% | 5% | 0% | 2% | -3.1 | -3.1 | -11.0 | +17.2 |
| South 4, 2 honba | Sayaka Kayamori ron 2,000 from Kenji Katsumata | 92% | 5% | 0% | 4% | +6.2 | -1.4 | -1.1 | -3.6 |