Game · 2020-21 Regular Season
12/17 Game 2
Yoshihiro Matsumoto finished 1st (+67.8pt). The game was decided in South 1, 1 honba: Yoshihiro Matsumoto ron 12,000 from Kenji Katsumata, which moved Yoshihiro Matsumoto's expected points by +37.2.
1st-place probabilityat the start of each hand
Hand by handexpected pt change = how much the hand's result moved the expected final points
| Hands | Result | Yoshihiro Matsumoto 1st-place chance | Masato Hagiwara 1st-place chance | Sayaka Kayamori 1st-place chance | Kenji Katsumata 1st-place chance | Yoshihiro Matsumoto Expected pt change | Masato Hagiwara Expected pt change | Sayaka Kayamori Expected pt change | Kenji Katsumata Expected pt change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| East 1 | Masato Hagiwara tsumo 8,000 | 26% | 24% | 25% | 25% | -12.6 | +21.2 | -4.3 | -4.4 |
| East 2 | Masato Hagiwara ron 3,900 from Sayaka Kayamori | 16% | 41% | 20% | 22% | 0.0 | +11.2 | -10.4 | -0.9 |
| East 2, 1 honba | Yoshihiro Matsumoto tsumo 4,000 | 15% | 51% | 14% | 20% | +10.6 | -7.3 | -2.8 | -0.6 |
| East 3 | Yoshihiro Matsumoto ron 5,200 from Sayaka Kayamori | 20% | 45% | 14% | 21% | +15.7 | +1.9 | -15.4 | -2.2 |
| East 4 | Exhaustive draw | 31% | 45% | 7% | 18% | -2.7 | +8.2 | -0.4 | -5.1 |
| South 1, 1 honba | Yoshihiro Matsumoto ron 12,000 from Kenji Katsumata | 27% | 54% | 6% | 13% | +37.2 | -9.0 | +1.6 | -29.8 |
| South 1, 2 honba | Exhaustive draw | 63% | 32% | 3% | 2% | +2.0 | +1.5 | -1.7 | -1.8 |
| South 1, 3 honba | Yoshihiro Matsumoto ron 12,000 from Masato Hagiwara | 65% | 31% | 3% | 2% | +24.6 | -27.7 | +0.5 | +2.6 |
| South 1, 4 honba | Masato Hagiwara tsumo 2,700 | 93% | 5% | 1% | 1% | -2.9 | +9.2 | -1.8 | -4.5 |
| South 2 | Exhaustive draw | 92% | 6% | 1% | 1% | -2.1 | +1.4 | -2.0 | +2.7 |
| South 2, 1 honba | Sayaka Kayamori ron 8,000 from Kenji Katsumata | 90% | 8% | 1% | 1% | +2.8 | -3.3 | +16.7 | -16.3 |
| South 3 | Masato Hagiwara ron 5,200 from Kenji Katsumata | 95% | 2% | 2% | 0% | +1.8 | +9.1 | -3.1 | -7.9 |
| South 4 | Exhaustive draw | 99% | 1% | 0% | 0% | -0.4 | +0.5 | -0.1 | 0.0 |
| South 4, 1 honba | Exhaustive draw | 98% | 2% | 0% | 0% | -0.7 | -1.4 | -1.6 | +3.7 |
| South 4, 2 honba | Kenji Katsumata tsumo 7,800 | 98% | 1% | 0% | 0% | -2.9 | -3.1 | -4.1 | +10.1 |
| South 4, 3 honba | Exhaustive draw | 98% | 1% | 0% | 0% | -1.1 | -0.5 | -2.1 | +3.7 |
| South 4, 4 honba | Masato Hagiwara tsumo 8,000 | 97% | 2% | 0% | 1% | -1.6 | +10.5 | +1.7 | -10.5 |