Game · 2020-21 Regular Season
12/17 Game 2
Matsumoto Yoshihiro finished 1st (+67.8pt). The game was decided in South 1, 1 honba: Matsumoto Yoshihiro ron 12,000 from Katsumata Kenji, which moved Matsumoto Yoshihiro's expected points by +35.0.
1st-place probabilityat the start of each hand
Hand by handexpected pt change = how much the hand's result moved the expected final points
| Hands | Result | Matsumoto Yoshihiro 1st-place chance | Hagiwara Masato 1st-place chance | Kayamori Sayaka 1st-place chance | Katsumata Kenji 1st-place chance | Matsumoto Yoshihiro Expected pt change | Hagiwara Masato Expected pt change | Kayamori Sayaka Expected pt change | Katsumata Kenji Expected pt change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| East 1 | Hagiwara Masato tsumo 8,000 | 26% | 25% | 25% | 24% | -12.9 | +20.8 | -6.1 | -1.8 |
| East 2 | Hagiwara Masato ron 3,900 from Kayamori Sayaka | 16% | 42% | 20% | 22% | +0.1 | +9.9 | -8.5 | -1.4 |
| East 2, 1 honba | Matsumoto Yoshihiro tsumo 4,000 | 16% | 50% | 15% | 19% | +11.0 | -5.0 | -3.2 | -2.7 |
| East 3 | Matsumoto Yoshihiro ron 5,200 from Kayamori Sayaka | 22% | 45% | 14% | 19% | +15.1 | +0.5 | -15.9 | +0.4 |
| East 4 | Draw | 31% | 44% | 7% | 17% | -1.0 | +8.0 | -2.0 | -5.0 |
| South 1, 1 honba | Matsumoto Yoshihiro ron 12,000 from Katsumata Kenji | 29% | 52% | 6% | 12% | +35.0 | -6.4 | +2.0 | -30.6 |
| South 1, 2 honba | Draw | 62% | 33% | 4% | 1% | +2.1 | +0.6 | -2.2 | -0.6 |
| South 1, 3 honba | Matsumoto Yoshihiro ron 12,000 from Hagiwara Masato | 64% | 32% | 2% | 2% | +24.9 | -28.1 | +2.3 | +1.0 |
| South 1, 4 honba | Hagiwara Masato tsumo 2,700 | 93% | 5% | 1% | 1% | -3.0 | +9.6 | -3.0 | -3.6 |
| South 2 | Draw | 92% | 7% | 1% | 1% | -1.5 | +1.8 | -3.2 | +2.9 |
| South 2, 1 honba | Kayamori Sayaka ron 8,000 from Katsumata Kenji | 90% | 8% | 1% | 1% | +2.4 | -4.2 | +18.2 | -16.4 |
| South 3 | Hagiwara Masato ron 5,200 from Katsumata Kenji | 96% | 2% | 2% | 0% | +1.2 | +9.4 | -3.5 | -7.1 |
| South 4 | Draw | 98% | 2% | 0% | 0% | +0.1 | +0.2 | -0.1 | -0.1 |
| South 4, 1 honba | Draw | 98% | 1% | 0% | 0% | -1.1 | -1.1 | -0.9 | +3.1 |
| South 4, 2 honba | Katsumata Kenji tsumo 7,800 | 98% | 2% | 0% | 0% | -2.9 | -2.8 | -4.9 | +10.7 |
| South 4, 3 honba | Draw | 98% | 2% | 0% | 0% | -0.6 | -1.7 | -1.9 | +4.3 |
| South 4, 4 honba | Hagiwara Masato tsumo 8,000 | 98% | 1% | 0% | 1% | -1.8 | +11.2 | +1.9 | -11.3 |