Game · 2020-21 Regular Season
12/24 Game 1
Mari Takamiya finished 1st (+67.6pt). The game was decided in East 4, 2 honba: Mari Takamiya tsumo 12,000, which moved Mari Takamiya's expected points by +28.2.
1st-place probabilityat the start of each hand
Hand by handexpected pt change = how much the hand's result moved the expected final points
| Hands | Result | Saki Kurosawa 1st-place chance | Jun Murakami 1st-place chance | Mari Takamiya 1st-place chance | Nobuhiro Ishibashi 1st-place chance | Saki Kurosawa Expected pt change | Jun Murakami Expected pt change | Mari Takamiya Expected pt change | Nobuhiro Ishibashi Expected pt change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| East 1 | Jun Murakami ron 8,000 from Saki Kurosawa | 26% | 25% | 25% | 24% | -23.7 | +21.5 | +0.9 | +1.2 |
| East 2 | Jun Murakami ron 7,700 from Saki Kurosawa | 12% | 40% | 25% | 24% | -16.3 | +17.8 | -2.3 | +0.8 |
| East 2, 1 honba | Jun Murakami tsumo 1,500 | 5% | 53% | 20% | 21% | -1.8 | +9.6 | -2.4 | -5.4 |
| East 2, 2 honba | Jun Murakami tsumo 7,800 | 4% | 64% | 17% | 16% | -3.9 | +17.1 | -6.4 | -6.8 |
| East 2, 3 honba | Saki Kurosawa ron 2,600 from Nobuhiro Ishibashi | 2% | 80% | 10% | 8% | +6.8 | +2.1 | -1.0 | -7.9 |
| East 3 | Exhaustive draw | 2% | 84% | 8% | 6% | -2.6 | +3.2 | -3.8 | +3.2 |
| East 4, 1 honba | Nobuhiro Ishibashi ron 1,500 from Saki Kurosawa | 2% | 89% | 4% | 5% | -7.1 | -0.4 | -0.5 | +8.0 |
| East 4, 2 honba | Mari Takamiya tsumo 12,000 | 1% | 87% | 5% | 7% | -6.1 | -4.9 | +28.2 | -17.1 |
| South 1 | Mari Takamiya tsumo 4,000 | 1% | 83% | 14% | 2% | -6.3 | -0.6 | +7.0 | -0.2 |
| South 2 | Nobuhiro Ishibashi tsumo 2,000 | 0% | 83% | 15% | 2% | -0.7 | -1.4 | -0.8 | +2.9 |
| South 3 | Mari Takamiya tsumo 12,000 | 0% | 84% | 14% | 2% | -4.3 | -18.3 | +27.9 | -5.3 |
| South 3, 1 honba | Exhaustive draw | 0% | 48% | 50% | 2% | +1.1 | -7.5 | +9.1 | -2.7 |
| South 3, 2 honba | Exhaustive draw | 0% | 34% | 65% | 1% | +1.0 | -8.3 | +5.2 | +2.1 |
| South 3, 3 honba | Nobuhiro Ishibashi tsumo 8,000 | 0% | 22% | 76% | 2% | -4.0 | -4.4 | -5.4 | +13.7 |
| South 4 | Exhaustive draw | 0% | 17% | 79% | 4% | -1.1 | -1.3 | -2.0 | +4.4 |
| South 4, 1 honba | Nobuhiro Ishibashi ron 7,700 from Jun Murakami | 0% | 18% | 77% | 6% | +0.2 | -25.0 | +3.2 | +21.6 |
| South 4, 2 honba | Mari Takamiya ron 2,600 from Saki Kurosawa | 0% | 3% | 84% | 13% | -3.2 | -7.6 | +10.5 | +0.2 |