Game · 2020-21 Regular Season
12/24 Game 2
Masato Hagiwara finished 1st (+59.3pt). The game was decided in East 3, 1 honba: Masato Hagiwara ron 12,000 from Ken Sonoda, which moved Masato Hagiwara's expected points by +35.7.
1st-place probabilityat the start of each hand
Hand by handexpected pt change = how much the hand's result moved the expected final points
| Hands | Result | Go Kobayashi 1st-place chance | Masato Hagiwara 1st-place chance | Ken Sonoda 1st-place chance | Hisato Sasaki 1st-place chance | Go Kobayashi Expected pt change | Masato Hagiwara Expected pt change | Ken Sonoda Expected pt change | Hisato Sasaki Expected pt change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| East 1 | Ken Sonoda ron 6,400 from Hisato Sasaki | 26% | 23% | 26% | 25% | -5.1 | +2.7 | +18.1 | -15.7 |
| East 2 | Exhaustive draw | 20% | 25% | 39% | 16% | +5.1 | -10.4 | +3.1 | +2.2 |
| East 3, 1 honba | Masato Hagiwara ron 12,000 from Ken Sonoda | 23% | 17% | 43% | 18% | +1.0 | +35.7 | -38.1 | +1.4 |
| East 4 | Ken Sonoda tsumo 1,500 | 23% | 46% | 14% | 17% | -2.1 | +3.7 | +9.1 | -10.7 |
| South 1 | Ken Sonoda tsumo 8,000 | 21% | 51% | 18% | 10% | -16.6 | -6.8 | +28.7 | -5.3 |
| South 2 | Masato Hagiwara ron 12,000 from Hisato Sasaki | 9% | 42% | 40% | 9% | +0.6 | +30.7 | -8.7 | -22.5 |
| South 2, 1 honba | Hisato Sasaki ron 8,000 from Masato Hagiwara | 3% | 76% | 20% | 1% | -0.2 | -16.1 | +5.3 | +11.1 |
| South 3 | Masato Hagiwara tsumo 5,200 | 6% | 61% | 29% | 4% | -4.4 | +19.1 | -13.1 | -1.6 |
| South 4 | Exhaustive draw | 1% | 91% | 5% | 3% | -2.8 | -3.8 | +5.7 | +0.9 |
| South 4, 1 honba | Go Kobayashi ron 5,200 from Hisato Sasaki | 1% | 86% | 10% | 3% | +8.0 | +6.7 | -1.1 | -13.6 |