Most differences in results are within chance.They are no grounds for criticising players.

Game · 2020-21 Semifinals

4/12 Game 1

Nikaido Aki finished 1st (+59.8pt). The game was decided in East 3: Nikaido Aki tsumo 8,000, which moved Nikaido Aki's expected points by +23.4.

1st-place probabilityat the start of each hand

0%25%50%75%100%East 1East 3South 2End● Nikaido Aki● Sasaki Hisato● Hinata Aiko● Okada Sayaka0%25%50%75%100%East 1South 1End● Nikaido● Sasaki● Hinata● Okada
The chance of finishing 1st, at the start of each hand (estimated by simulation). Shaded: the hand that decided this game.

Hand by handexpected pt change = how much the hand's result moved the expected final points

HandsResultSasaki Hisato
1st-place chance
Nikaido Aki
1st-place chance
Hinata Aiko
1st-place chance
Okada Sayaka
1st-place chance
Sasaki Hisato
Expected pt change
Nikaido Aki
Expected pt change
Hinata Aiko
Expected pt change
Okada Sayaka
Expected pt change
East 1Nikaido Aki ron 8,000 from Sasaki Hisato25%26%25%24%-21.4+18.7+0.2+2.6
East 2Nikaido Aki ron 2,400 from Sasaki Hisato12%39%25%25%-8.8+9.1-0.8+0.5
East 2, 1 honbaHinata Aiko tsumo 2,0008%46%23%23%-1.2-2.2+6.0-2.6
East 3Nikaido Aki tsumo 8,0008%45%26%21%-5.5+23.4-12.3-5.7
East 4Draw4%70%12%14%+3.5+1.6-0.9-4.2
South 1, 1 honbaHinata Aiko ron 3,200 from Nikaido Aki5%75%11%9%-6.4-4.9+11.0+0.4
South 2Hinata Aiko ron 2,000 from Sasaki Hisato2%71%16%11%-6.1+0.2+6.3-0.3
South 3Draw1%74%16%9%+1.6+6.0-4.2-3.4
South 4, 1 honbaDraw0%87%6%7%-3.7+6.7+2.3-5.3

All 2020-21 games / This game's record (M League Haifu)