Game · 2020-21 Semifinal Series
4/12 Game 1
Aki Nikaido finished 1st (+59.8pt). The game was decided in East 3: Aki Nikaido tsumo 8,000, which moved Aki Nikaido's expected points by +27.3.
1st-place probabilityat the start of each hand
Hand by handexpected pt change = how much the hand's result moved the expected final points
| Hands | Result | Hisato Sasaki 1st-place chance | Aki Nikaido 1st-place chance | Aiko Hinata 1st-place chance | Sayaka Okada 1st-place chance | Hisato Sasaki Expected pt change | Aki Nikaido Expected pt change | Aiko Hinata Expected pt change | Sayaka Okada Expected pt change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| East 1 | Aki Nikaido ron 8,000 from Hisato Sasaki | 25% | 26% | 25% | 24% | -22.5 | +20.2 | +1.9 | +0.4 |
| East 2 | Aki Nikaido ron 2,400 from Hisato Sasaki | 11% | 40% | 24% | 25% | -7.5 | +7.7 | -1.2 | +1.1 |
| East 2, 1 honba | Aiko Hinata tsumo 2,000 | 8% | 47% | 22% | 24% | +0.2 | -4.6 | +7.6 | -3.2 |
| East 3 | Aki Nikaido tsumo 8,000 | 9% | 43% | 27% | 21% | -8.2 | +27.3 | -14.4 | -4.7 |
| East 4 | Exhaustive draw | 4% | 72% | 11% | 13% | +4.6 | +0.8 | -1.4 | -3.9 |
| South 1, 1 honba | Aiko Hinata ron 3,200 from Aki Nikaido | 4% | 75% | 11% | 9% | -6.4 | -5.1 | +11.7 | -0.2 |
| South 2 | Aiko Hinata ron 2,000 from Hisato Sasaki | 2% | 71% | 17% | 10% | -6.3 | 0.0 | +8.0 | -1.7 |
| South 3 | Exhaustive draw | 1% | 74% | 17% | 8% | +2.3 | +5.2 | -5.8 | -1.7 |
| South 4, 1 honba | Exhaustive draw | 0% | 86% | 6% | 8% | -4.1 | +7.4 | +2.5 | -5.7 |