Most differences in results are within chance.They are no grounds for criticising players.

Game · 2020-21 Semifinals

4/13 Game 1

Maruyama Kanako finished 1st (+72.0pt). The game was decided in East 3: Maruyama Kanako ron 16,000 from Setokuma Naoki, which moved Maruyama Kanako's expected points by +44.6.

1st-place probabilityat the start of each hand

0%25%50%75%100%East 1East 4South 2End● Maruyama Kanako● Maehara Yudai● Setokuma Naoki● Matsumoto Yoshihiro0%25%50%75%100%East 1South 2End● Maruyama● Maehara● Setokuma● Matsumoto
The chance of finishing 1st, at the start of each hand (estimated by simulation). Shaded: the hand that decided this game.

Hand by handexpected pt change = how much the hand's result moved the expected final points

HandsResultMaehara Yudai
1st-place chance
Maruyama Kanako
1st-place chance
Setokuma Naoki
1st-place chance
Matsumoto Yoshihiro
1st-place chance
Maehara Yudai
Expected pt change
Maruyama Kanako
Expected pt change
Setokuma Naoki
Expected pt change
Matsumoto Yoshihiro
Expected pt change
East 1Matsumoto Yoshihiro ron 8,000 from Maruyama Kanako25%25%24%26%-2.1-20.6+1.6+21.1
East 2Matsumoto Yoshihiro tsumo 2,00021%14%23%42%+1.0-5.5-4.8+9.3
East 3Maruyama Kanako ron 16,000 from Setokuma Naoki20%9%20%50%-2.0+44.6-42.2-0.4
East 4Maruyama Kanako tsumo 12,00017%33%4%46%-8.5+34.8-5.5-20.8
South 1Matsumoto Yoshihiro tsumo 8,0009%72%2%17%-11.6-5.9-3.2+20.7
South 2Maruyama Kanako tsumo 12,0002%62%1%35%-5.9+23.6-3.3-14.5
South 2, 1 honbaDraw0%89%0%11%+4.4-1.1-1.7-1.5
South 3, 2 honbaDraw0%91%1%8%+4.4+1.4-4.9-0.9
South 4, 3 honbaSetokuma Naoki ron 12,000 from Matsumoto Yoshihiro0%95%0%5%-1.4+1.0+15.1-14.6

All 2020-21 games / This game's record (M League Haifu)