Game · 2020-21 Semifinal Series
4/13 Game 2
Mari Takamiya finished 1st (+98.0pt). The game was decided in South 3: Mari Takamiya tsumo 16,000, which moved Mari Takamiya's expected points by +50.7.
1st-place probabilityat the start of each hand
Hand by handexpected pt change = how much the hand's result moved the expected final points
| Hands | Result | Masato Hagiwara 1st-place chance | Jun Murakami 1st-place chance | Takaharu Ooi 1st-place chance | Mari Takamiya 1st-place chance | Masato Hagiwara Expected pt change | Jun Murakami Expected pt change | Takaharu Ooi Expected pt change | Mari Takamiya Expected pt change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| East 1 | Exhaustive draw | 24% | 27% | 24% | 26% | -3.8 | -1.2 | +8.0 | -3.0 |
| East 2, 1 honba | Takaharu Ooi ron 8,000 from Mari Takamiya | 21% | 23% | 30% | 25% | +0.4 | -4.0 | +25.6 | -22.0 |
| East 3 | Mari Takamiya ron 8,000 from Jun Murakami | 19% | 17% | 52% | 11% | -1.8 | -23.4 | -2.2 | +27.3 |
| East 4 | Exhaustive draw | 18% | 7% | 50% | 25% | -2.6 | -1.1 | -1.3 | +5.0 |
| East 4, 1 honba | Exhaustive draw | 17% | 8% | 48% | 28% | -3.0 | +5.6 | +0.7 | -3.4 |
| South 1, 2 honba | Mari Takamiya tsumo 4,000 | 15% | 9% | 50% | 25% | -11.1 | -3.7 | -3.5 | +18.4 |
| South 2 | Masato Hagiwara tsumo 12,000 | 7% | 8% | 44% | 41% | +41.6 | -21.2 | -10.6 | -9.8 |
| South 3 | Mari Takamiya tsumo 16,000 | 37% | 1% | 32% | 31% | -16.1 | -4.6 | -30.0 | +50.7 |
| South 4 | Mari Takamiya tsumo 18,000 | 2% | 0% | 0% | 98% | -5.6 | -5.9 | -8.8 | +20.3 |
| South 4, 1 honba | Mari Takamiya ron 5,800 from Takaharu Ooi | 0% | 0% | 0% | 100% | +1.7 | +0.4 | -9.0 | +6.8 |
| South 4, 2 honba | Mari Takamiya tsumo 6,000 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 100% | -1.6 | -2.3 | -2.8 | +6.7 |
| South 4, 3 honba | Exhaustive draw | 0% | 0% | 0% | 100% | +0.2 | +0.3 | +0.6 | -1.1 |