Game · 2020-21 Semifinals
4/13 Game 2
Takamiya Mari finished 1st (+98.0pt). The game was decided in South 3: Takamiya Mari tsumo 16,000, which moved Takamiya Mari's expected points by +52.3.
1st-place probabilityat the start of each hand
Hand by handexpected pt change = how much the hand's result moved the expected final points
| Hands | Result | Hagiwara Masato 1st-place chance | Murakami Jun 1st-place chance | Ooi Takaharu 1st-place chance | Takamiya Mari 1st-place chance | Hagiwara Masato Expected pt change | Murakami Jun Expected pt change | Ooi Takaharu Expected pt change | Takamiya Mari Expected pt change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| East 1 | Draw | 25% | 25% | 25% | 25% | -3.8 | -2.4 | +6.6 | -0.4 |
| East 2, 1 honba | Ooi Takaharu ron 8,000 from Takamiya Mari | 23% | 22% | 30% | 25% | -1.6 | -0.6 | +24.2 | -22.0 |
| East 3 | Takamiya Mari ron 8,000 from Murakami Jun | 18% | 19% | 51% | 12% | -2.3 | -25.0 | +1.1 | +26.1 |
| East 4 | Draw | 17% | 8% | 52% | 24% | -1.5 | -0.9 | -4.1 | +6.5 |
| East 4, 1 honba | Draw | 16% | 8% | 47% | 29% | -4.7 | +7.4 | +1.0 | -3.7 |
| South 1, 2 honba | Takamiya Mari tsumo 4,000 | 14% | 10% | 50% | 25% | -8.6 | -6.1 | -3.8 | +18.6 |
| South 2 | Hagiwara Masato tsumo 12,000 | 7% | 7% | 43% | 43% | +41.5 | -19.1 | -11.1 | -11.2 |
| South 3 | Takamiya Mari tsumo 16,000 | 38% | 1% | 31% | 31% | -17.1 | -5.7 | -29.4 | +52.3 |
| South 4 | Takamiya Mari tsumo 18,000 | 1% | 0% | 0% | 99% | -6.2 | -5.9 | -7.2 | +19.3 |
| South 4, 1 honba | Takamiya Mari ron 5,800 from Ooi Takaharu | 0% | 0% | 0% | 100% | +2.6 | +0.3 | -10.2 | +7.4 |
| South 4, 2 honba | Takamiya Mari tsumo 6,000 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 100% | -2.0 | -2.5 | -1.8 | +6.3 |
| South 4, 3 honba | Draw | 0% | 0% | 0% | 100% | +0.4 | +0.6 | 0.0 | -1.0 |