Game · 2020-21 Semifinal Series
4/15 Game 1
Saki Kurosawa finished 1st (+51.8pt). The game was decided in South 4, 1 honba: Saki Kurosawa tsumo 8,000, which moved Saki Kurosawa's expected points by +65.7.
1st-place probabilityat the start of each hand
Hand by handexpected pt change = how much the hand's result moved the expected final points
| Hands | Result | Kenji Katsumata 1st-place chance | Makoto Sawazaki 1st-place chance | Saki Kurosawa 1st-place chance | Ken Sonoda 1st-place chance | Kenji Katsumata Expected pt change | Makoto Sawazaki Expected pt change | Saki Kurosawa Expected pt change | Ken Sonoda Expected pt change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| East 1 | Saki Kurosawa ron 6,400 from Ken Sonoda | 24% | 25% | 25% | 26% | -6.5 | -0.9 | +24.7 | -17.3 |
| East 2 | Ken Sonoda ron 3,900 from Makoto Sawazaki | 19% | 23% | 42% | 16% | +2.5 | -12.3 | +1.4 | +8.3 |
| East 3 | Ken Sonoda tsumo 2,000 | 21% | 15% | 45% | 19% | -0.5 | +0.2 | -5.2 | +5.5 |
| East 4 | Ken Sonoda tsumo 12,000 | 21% | 16% | 40% | 23% | -12.5 | -10.6 | -11.5 | +34.5 |
| East 4, 1 honba | Exhaustive draw | 13% | 10% | 27% | 50% | -2.1 | +1.1 | -3.0 | +3.9 |
| East 4, 2 honba | Exhaustive draw | 11% | 10% | 24% | 55% | +1.3 | +3.8 | -2.1 | -3.1 |
| South 1, 3 honba | Kenji Katsumata ron 2,000 from Makoto Sawazaki | 13% | 13% | 22% | 53% | +17.5 | -12.3 | -2.3 | -2.9 |
| South 1, 4 honba | Makoto Sawazaki tsumo 4,000 | 21% | 8% | 21% | 50% | -7.4 | +13.8 | -4.7 | -1.6 |
| South 2 | Kenji Katsumata ron 2,000 from Ken Sonoda | 16% | 14% | 20% | 50% | +10.4 | -10.5 | +0.2 | -0.2 |
| South 3 | Exhaustive draw | 23% | 7% | 20% | 51% | -4.3 | -1.1 | -10.2 | +15.6 |
| South 4, 1 honba | Saki Kurosawa tsumo 8,000 | 13% | 5% | 6% | 75% | -16.7 | -14.0 | +65.7 | -35.0 |