Game · 2020-21 Semifinal Series
4/15 Game 2
Saki Kurosawa finished 1st (+58.5pt). The game was decided in East 2, 1 honba: Saki Kurosawa ron 8,000 from Kotaro Uchikawa, which moved Saki Kurosawa's expected points by +22.3.
1st-place probabilityat the start of each hand
Hand by handexpected pt change = how much the hand's result moved the expected final points
| Hands | Result | Saki Kurosawa 1st-place chance | Kotaro Uchikawa 1st-place chance | Kenji Katsumata 1st-place chance | Taro Suzuki 1st-place chance | Saki Kurosawa Expected pt change | Kotaro Uchikawa Expected pt change | Kenji Katsumata Expected pt change | Taro Suzuki Expected pt change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| East 1 | Exhaustive draw | 25% | 26% | 24% | 25% | -4.7 | -0.8 | +7.0 | -1.6 |
| East 2, 1 honba | Saki Kurosawa ron 8,000 from Kotaro Uchikawa | 22% | 23% | 30% | 26% | +22.3 | -25.4 | +2.0 | +1.1 |
| East 3 | Kotaro Uchikawa ron 16,000 from Kenji Katsumata | 37% | 9% | 30% | 24% | +1.7 | +47.0 | -46.9 | -1.8 |
| East 4 | Exhaustive draw | 36% | 38% | 5% | 21% | -4.4 | -2.0 | -2.3 | +8.7 |
| East 4, 1 honba | Saki Kurosawa ron 8,000 from Kenji Katsumata | 32% | 37% | 5% | 26% | +22.1 | -3.3 | -14.1 | -4.7 |
| South 1 | Kotaro Uchikawa ron 1,000 from Kenji Katsumata | 53% | 27% | 2% | 18% | +0.5 | +3.3 | -1.9 | -1.9 |
| South 2 | Kenji Katsumata ron 2,300 from Kotaro Uchikawa | 55% | 29% | 1% | 15% | +7.6 | -10.7 | +2.6 | +0.5 |
| South 3 | Exhaustive draw | 69% | 14% | 1% | 15% | -2.0 | -0.7 | +3.7 | -0.9 |
| South 3, 1 honba | Taro Suzuki tsumo 8,000 | 66% | 16% | 2% | 16% | -4.8 | -14.0 | -10.5 | +29.3 |
| South 4 | Saki Kurosawa tsumo 2,000 | 59% | 7% | 0% | 34% | +20.0 | -6.0 | +0.1 | -14.1 |