Game · 2020-21 Semifinal Series
4/19 Game 2
Naoki Setokuma finished 1st (+58.6pt). The game was decided in East 3: Naoki Setokuma tsumo 8,000, which moved Naoki Setokuma's expected points by +24.6.
1st-place probabilityat the start of each hand
Hand by handexpected pt change = how much the hand's result moved the expected final points
| Hands | Result | Makoto Sawazaki 1st-place chance | Kazunori Takizawa 1st-place chance | Satoshi Fujisaki 1st-place chance | Naoki Setokuma 1st-place chance | Makoto Sawazaki Expected pt change | Kazunori Takizawa Expected pt change | Satoshi Fujisaki Expected pt change | Naoki Setokuma Expected pt change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| East 1 | Exhaustive draw | 26% | 24% | 26% | 25% | -6.9 | -2.7 | +4.4 | +5.1 |
| East 2, 1 honba | Exhaustive draw | 20% | 22% | 28% | 31% | -3.3 | +3.3 | +4.9 | -4.9 |
| East 2, 2 honba | Makoto Sawazaki tsumo 2,700 | 19% | 24% | 32% | 25% | +18.6 | -8.9 | -6.5 | -3.1 |
| East 3 | Naoki Setokuma tsumo 8,000 | 31% | 18% | 27% | 24% | -7.2 | -3.4 | -14.0 | +24.6 |
| East 4 | Makoto Sawazaki tsumo 4,000 | 25% | 16% | 17% | 42% | +13.7 | -4.2 | -5.0 | -4.5 |
| South 1 | Naoki Setokuma tsumo 5,200 | 36% | 13% | 13% | 37% | -10.5 | -3.8 | -4.6 | +19.0 |
| South 2 | Kazunori Takizawa tsumo 9,600 | 21% | 10% | 10% | 59% | -10.6 | +29.8 | -8.4 | -10.8 |
| South 2, 1 honba | Exhaustive draw | 18% | 27% | 8% | 47% | +4.4 | -12.7 | -0.8 | +9.0 |
| South 3, 2 honba | Naoki Setokuma ron 3,900 from Satoshi Fujisaki | 18% | 15% | 8% | 59% | -1.1 | -2.6 | -17.6 | +21.2 |
| South 4 | Exhaustive draw | 5% | 4% | 0% | 92% | +6.9 | -8.2 | -1.0 | +2.3 |