Game · 2020-21 Semifinals
4/19 Game 2
Setokuma Naoki finished 1st (+58.6pt). The game was decided in East 3: Setokuma Naoki tsumo 8,000, which moved Setokuma Naoki's expected points by +24.6.
1st-place probabilityat the start of each hand
Hand by handexpected pt change = how much the hand's result moved the expected final points
| Hands | Result | Sawazaki Makoto 1st-place chance | Takizawa Kazunori 1st-place chance | Fujisaki Satoshi 1st-place chance | Setokuma Naoki 1st-place chance | Sawazaki Makoto Expected pt change | Takizawa Kazunori Expected pt change | Fujisaki Satoshi Expected pt change | Setokuma Naoki Expected pt change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| East 1 | Draw | 26% | 26% | 24% | 25% | -6.2 | -1.8 | +4.8 | +3.2 |
| East 2, 1 honba | Draw | 20% | 24% | 29% | 28% | -2.0 | +2.4 | +1.7 | -2.1 |
| East 2, 2 honba | Sawazaki Makoto tsumo 2,700 | 19% | 26% | 29% | 27% | +17.4 | -11.2 | -3.4 | -2.8 |
| East 3 | Setokuma Naoki tsumo 8,000 | 31% | 17% | 27% | 25% | -7.1 | -3.3 | -14.2 | +24.6 |
| East 4 | Sawazaki Makoto tsumo 4,000 | 24% | 15% | 18% | 43% | +15.6 | -5.4 | -3.1 | -7.1 |
| South 1 | Setokuma Naoki tsumo 5,200 | 38% | 12% | 14% | 35% | -12.9 | -3.2 | -4.0 | +20.2 |
| South 2 | Takizawa Kazunori tsumo 9,600 | 22% | 9% | 11% | 59% | -10.6 | +30.4 | -10.6 | -9.3 |
| South 2, 1 honba | Draw | 17% | 27% | 8% | 47% | +5.1 | -12.1 | -2.0 | +8.9 |
| South 3, 2 honba | Setokuma Naoki ron 3,900 from Fujisaki Satoshi | 18% | 15% | 7% | 60% | -1.3 | -3.3 | -16.5 | +21.1 |
| South 4 | Draw | 5% | 4% | 0% | 92% | +6.6 | -7.5 | -1.2 | +2.1 |