Game · 2020-21 Semifinal Series
4/22 Game 1
Sayaka Okada finished 1st (+86.1pt). The game was decided in East 1: Sayaka Okada ron 12,000 from Yudai Maehara, which moved Sayaka Okada's expected points by +34.7.
1st-place probabilityat the start of each hand
Hand by handexpected pt change = how much the hand's result moved the expected final points
| Hands | Result | Sayaka Okada 1st-place chance | Yudai Maehara 1st-place chance | Saki Kurosawa 1st-place chance | Jun Murakami 1st-place chance | Sayaka Okada Expected pt change | Yudai Maehara Expected pt change | Saki Kurosawa Expected pt change | Jun Murakami Expected pt change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| East 1 | Sayaka Okada ron 12,000 from Yudai Maehara | 25% | 25% | 25% | 25% | +34.7 | -30.8 | -2.8 | -1.1 |
| East 1, 1 honba | Sayaka Okada tsumo 12,000 | 52% | 9% | 19% | 20% | +26.1 | -6.6 | -9.5 | -10.0 |
| East 1, 2 honba | Saki Kurosawa ron 8,000 from Sayaka Okada | 75% | 5% | 10% | 10% | -21.3 | -3.5 | +22.8 | +2.0 |
| East 2 | Yudai Maehara ron 12,000 from Saki Kurosawa | 54% | 5% | 26% | 15% | +5.1 | +24.8 | -28.2 | -1.7 |
| East 2, 1 honba | Sayaka Okada ron 5,200 from Yudai Maehara | 63% | 12% | 11% | 14% | +12.6 | -13.4 | -0.4 | +1.1 |
| East 3 | Sayaka Okada tsumo 12,000 | 74% | 5% | 9% | 12% | +21.8 | -6.4 | -12.1 | -3.2 |
| East 4 | Sayaka Okada ron 2,000 from Saki Kurosawa | 94% | 1% | 1% | 4% | +3.2 | +0.7 | -3.7 | -0.1 |
| South 1 | Sayaka Okada ron 2,900 from Saki Kurosawa | 96% | 1% | 1% | 2% | +4.5 | +2.4 | -6.7 | -0.3 |
| South 1, 1 honba | Exhaustive draw | 98% | 1% | 1% | 1% | +2.6 | -0.8 | -1.5 | -0.3 |
| South 1, 2 honba | Yudai Maehara ron 6,400 from Jun Murakami | 99% | 0% | 0% | 1% | -1.2 | +18.4 | -1.6 | -15.6 |
| South 2 | Saki Kurosawa ron 1,000 from Sayaka Okada | 98% | 1% | 0% | 1% | -0.4 | -0.6 | +1.2 | -0.2 |
| South 3 | Yudai Maehara ron 5,200 from Jun Murakami | 99% | 0% | 0% | 1% | +0.6 | +15.9 | +2.3 | -18.7 |
| South 4 | Yudai Maehara ron 2,000 from Sayaka Okada | 100% | 0% | 0% | 0% | -1.8 | +4.1 | +6.0 | -8.4 |