Game · 2020-21 Semifinal Series
4/23 Game 1
Mari Takamiya finished 1st (+63.4pt). The game was decided in South 4, 1 honba: Mari Takamiya tsumo 12,000, which moved Mari Takamiya's expected points by +44.5.
1st-place probabilityat the start of each hand
Hand by handexpected pt change = how much the hand's result moved the expected final points
| Hands | Result | Taro Suzuki 1st-place chance | Aki Nikaido 1st-place chance | Sho Shiratori 1st-place chance | Mari Takamiya 1st-place chance | Taro Suzuki Expected pt change | Aki Nikaido Expected pt change | Sho Shiratori Expected pt change | Mari Takamiya Expected pt change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| East 1 | Mari Takamiya tsumo 12,000 | 26% | 26% | 24% | 24% | -17.2 | -9.6 | -6.2 | +33.0 |
| East 2 | Exhaustive draw | 13% | 18% | 18% | 52% | -3.5 | +7.1 | -1.8 | -1.9 |
| East 2, 1 honba | Mari Takamiya ron 3,900 from Taro Suzuki | 12% | 21% | 17% | 50% | -9.5 | -2.3 | -2.6 | +14.4 |
| East 3 | Exhaustive draw | 7% | 16% | 13% | 63% | -2.1 | -3.1 | +7.3 | -2.0 |
| East 3, 1 honba | Exhaustive draw | 6% | 14% | 18% | 62% | -4.2 | -0.2 | -5.1 | +9.5 |
| East 4, 2 honba | Taro Suzuki ron 12,000 from Mari Takamiya | 4% | 12% | 11% | 74% | +36.8 | +0.1 | +0.7 | -37.7 |
| South 1 | Aki Nikaido tsumo 8,000 | 26% | 20% | 19% | 36% | -15.2 | +27.1 | -8.0 | -3.9 |
| South 2 | Mari Takamiya ron 2,000 from Aki Nikaido | 15% | 40% | 13% | 32% | -1.4 | -10.4 | -3.0 | +14.9 |
| South 3 | Aki Nikaido tsumo 8,000 | 13% | 28% | 12% | 47% | -6.9 | +36.9 | -18.0 | -12.0 |
| South 4 | Exhaustive draw | 2% | 80% | 1% | 18% | +3.5 | -4.2 | -3.5 | +4.2 |
| South 4, 1 honba | Mari Takamiya tsumo 12,000 | 3% | 74% | 0% | 23% | -6.4 | -32.5 | -5.7 | +44.5 |
| South 4, 2 honba | Aki Nikaido ron 8,000 from Sho Shiratori | 0% | 5% | 0% | 95% | +1.7 | +8.7 | -11.2 | +0.8 |