Game · 2020-21 Semifinals
4/26 Game 1
Matsumoto Yoshihiro finished 1st (+62.0pt). The game was decided in South 1, 1 honba: Matsumoto Yoshihiro tsumo 8,000, which moved Matsumoto Yoshihiro's expected points by +29.8.
1st-place probabilityat the start of each hand
Hand by handexpected pt change = how much the hand's result moved the expected final points
| Hands | Result | Uchikawa Kotaro 1st-place chance | Matsumoto Yoshihiro 1st-place chance | Setokuma Naoki 1st-place chance | Katsumata Kenji 1st-place chance | Uchikawa Kotaro Expected pt change | Matsumoto Yoshihiro Expected pt change | Setokuma Naoki Expected pt change | Katsumata Kenji Expected pt change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| East 1 | Katsumata Kenji ron 3,900 from Uchikawa Kotaro | 27% | 23% | 26% | 24% | -14.9 | +2.7 | +1.2 | +11.0 |
| East 2 | Draw | 16% | 26% | 25% | 32% | -1.9 | -7.0 | +5.0 | +3.8 |
| East 3, 1 honba | Setokuma Naoki ron 12,000 from Katsumata Kenji | 16% | 21% | 29% | 35% | -1.4 | -1.3 | +37.1 | -34.4 |
| East 3, 2 honba | Uchikawa Kotaro tsumo 4,000 | 11% | 16% | 62% | 11% | +12.4 | -3.5 | -3.8 | -5.1 |
| East 4 | Matsumoto Yoshihiro ron 8,000 from Setokuma Naoki | 17% | 14% | 60% | 9% | +1.0 | +28.6 | -27.1 | -2.6 |
| South 1 | Draw | 21% | 38% | 31% | 9% | +4.6 | +4.2 | -7.5 | -1.3 |
| South 1, 1 honba | Matsumoto Yoshihiro tsumo 8,000 | 24% | 43% | 25% | 8% | -17.5 | +29.8 | -6.7 | -5.6 |
| South 2 | Draw | 5% | 79% | 13% | 4% | -3.3 | -3.2 | +9.0 | -2.5 |
| South 3, 1 honba | Matsumoto Yoshihiro tsumo 1,100 | 4% | 77% | 16% | 4% | -0.2 | +9.4 | -4.4 | -4.8 |
| South 4 | Uchikawa Kotaro ron 12,000 from Katsumata Kenji | 1% | 93% | 4% | 2% | +30.7 | +3.2 | -15.6 | -18.3 |