Game · 2020-21 Semifinals
4/26 Game 2
Kurosawa Saki finished 1st (+53.4pt). The game was decided in East 2, 3 honba: Kurosawa Saki tsumo 12,000, which moved Kurosawa Saki's expected points by +39.1.
1st-place probabilityat the start of each hand
Hand by handexpected pt change = how much the hand's result moved the expected final points
| Hands | Result | Sawazaki Makoto 1st-place chance | Ooi Takaharu 1st-place chance | Nikaido Aki 1st-place chance | Kurosawa Saki 1st-place chance | Sawazaki Makoto Expected pt change | Ooi Takaharu Expected pt change | Nikaido Aki Expected pt change | Kurosawa Saki Expected pt change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| East 1 | Draw | 26% | 26% | 23% | 24% | +7.8 | -4.1 | -1.1 | -2.6 |
| East 1, 1 honba | Draw | 32% | 22% | 24% | 23% | +1.8 | +4.0 | -1.7 | -4.1 |
| East 1, 2 honba | Draw | 33% | 25% | 22% | 20% | -4.5 | -3.8 | +8.2 | +0.1 |
| East 2, 3 honba | Kurosawa Saki tsumo 12,000 | 28% | 24% | 28% | 20% | -9.2 | -20.0 | -9.8 | +39.1 |
| East 3 | Sawazaki Makoto ron 2,600 from Nikaido Aki | 20% | 10% | 20% | 50% | +7.6 | +0.9 | -10.3 | +1.8 |
| East 4 | Draw | 23% | 11% | 14% | 53% | +3.4 | +1.1 | -2.3 | -2.2 |
| South 1, 1 honba | Draw | 26% | 11% | 11% | 52% | -4.3 | +1.7 | +4.1 | -1.6 |
| South 2, 2 honba | Nikaido Aki ron 3,900 from Sawazaki Makoto | 23% | 12% | 15% | 51% | -18.6 | -9.7 | +22.1 | +6.1 |
| South 3 | Ooi Takaharu ron 2,600 from Sawazaki Makoto | 10% | 5% | 24% | 61% | -17.9 | +12.0 | -2.6 | +8.5 |
| South 4 | Ooi Takaharu ron 8,000 from Sawazaki Makoto | 3% | 6% | 13% | 78% | -17.0 | +26.7 | -18.2 | +8.5 |