Game · 2020-21 Semifinal Series
4/26 Game 2
Saki Kurosawa finished 1st (+53.4pt). The game was decided in East 2, 3 honba: Saki Kurosawa tsumo 12,000, which moved Saki Kurosawa's expected points by +40.4.
1st-place probabilityat the start of each hand
Hand by handexpected pt change = how much the hand's result moved the expected final points
| Hands | Result | Makoto Sawazaki 1st-place chance | Takaharu Ooi 1st-place chance | Aki Nikaido 1st-place chance | Saki Kurosawa 1st-place chance | Makoto Sawazaki Expected pt change | Takaharu Ooi Expected pt change | Aki Nikaido Expected pt change | Saki Kurosawa Expected pt change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| East 1 | Exhaustive draw | 26% | 25% | 24% | 25% | +8.5 | -2.3 | -3.4 | -2.8 |
| East 1, 1 honba | Exhaustive draw | 31% | 23% | 23% | 23% | +1.8 | +1.5 | -2.0 | -1.2 |
| East 1, 2 honba | Exhaustive draw | 31% | 25% | 21% | 23% | -3.6 | -1.7 | +7.6 | -2.3 |
| East 2, 3 honba | Saki Kurosawa tsumo 12,000 | 30% | 23% | 26% | 21% | -11.5 | -20.9 | -8.0 | +40.4 |
| East 3 | Makoto Sawazaki ron 2,600 from Aki Nikaido | 18% | 10% | 19% | 53% | +8.5 | +0.8 | -10.9 | +1.6 |
| East 4 | Exhaustive draw | 23% | 11% | 11% | 55% | +3.7 | +1.9 | -1.2 | -4.4 |
| South 1, 1 honba | Exhaustive draw | 27% | 12% | 13% | 49% | -5.7 | +1.2 | +2.5 | +2.0 |
| South 2, 2 honba | Aki Nikaido ron 3,900 from Makoto Sawazaki | 21% | 13% | 14% | 53% | -18.1 | -10.1 | +23.9 | +4.3 |
| South 3 | Takaharu Ooi ron 2,600 from Makoto Sawazaki | 9% | 5% | 23% | 62% | -18.0 | +12.4 | -2.7 | +8.2 |
| South 4 | Takaharu Ooi ron 8,000 from Makoto Sawazaki | 2% | 7% | 13% | 79% | -16.3 | +26.6 | -18.5 | +8.2 |