Game · 2020-21 Semifinal Series
4/29 Game 1
Aiko Hinata finished 1st (+70.2pt). The game was decided in South 3, 1 honba: Aiko Hinata ron 12,000 from Yudai Maehara, which moved Aiko Hinata's expected points by +39.0.
1st-place probabilityat the start of each hand
Hand by handexpected pt change = how much the hand's result moved the expected final points
| Hands | Result | Sayaka Okada 1st-place chance | Saki Kurosawa 1st-place chance | Aiko Hinata 1st-place chance | Yudai Maehara 1st-place chance | Sayaka Okada Expected pt change | Saki Kurosawa Expected pt change | Aiko Hinata Expected pt change | Yudai Maehara Expected pt change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| East 1 | Aiko Hinata tsumo 2,700 | 24% | 25% | 25% | 26% | -8.0 | -2.4 | +12.1 | -1.8 |
| East 2 | Yudai Maehara tsumo 4,000 | 18% | 24% | 34% | 24% | 0.0 | -9.3 | -1.8 | +11.1 |
| East 3 | Yudai Maehara tsumo 16,000 | 19% | 17% | 32% | 32% | -12.4 | -8.8 | -24.2 | +45.4 |
| East 4 | Exhaustive draw | 7% | 7% | 9% | 77% | -1.2 | +5.1 | -1.0 | -2.9 |
| South 1, 1 honba | Aiko Hinata tsumo 2,700 | 7% | 8% | 9% | 76% | -8.4 | -4.0 | +10.4 | +2.0 |
| South 2 | Yudai Maehara tsumo 8,000 | 2% | 7% | 11% | 81% | -2.5 | -12.4 | -1.2 | +16.1 |
| South 3 | Aiko Hinata ron 12,000 from Saki Kurosawa | 0% | 0% | 4% | 96% | +3.7 | -24.3 | +23.4 | -2.8 |
| South 3, 1 honba | Aiko Hinata ron 12,000 from Yudai Maehara | 0% | 0% | 11% | 89% | -0.7 | +0.8 | +39.0 | -39.1 |
| South 3, 2 honba | Saki Kurosawa tsumo 8,000 | 0% | 0% | 75% | 25% | -6.7 | +13.2 | -3.1 | -3.3 |
| South 4 | Aiko Hinata ron 6,400 from Yudai Maehara | 0% | 0% | 79% | 21% | +7.7 | -7.1 | +16.3 | -16.9 |