Game · 2020-21 Semifinals
4/30 Game 2
Ooi Takaharu finished 1st (+51.1pt). The game was decided in South 1: Ooi Takaharu tsumo 12,000, which moved Ooi Takaharu's expected points by +42.4.
1st-place probabilityat the start of each hand
Hand by handexpected pt change = how much the hand's result moved the expected final points
| Hands | Result | Ooi Takaharu 1st-place chance | Katsumata Kenji 1st-place chance | Hori Shingo 1st-place chance | Sonoda Ken 1st-place chance | Ooi Takaharu Expected pt change | Katsumata Kenji Expected pt change | Hori Shingo Expected pt change | Sonoda Ken Expected pt change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| East 1 | Draw | 26% | 24% | 23% | 27% | -4.3 | +5.5 | +0.3 | -1.5 |
| East 2, 1 honba | Draw | 22% | 29% | 24% | 25% | -6.7 | +4.7 | -2.7 | +4.7 |
| East 2, 2 honba | Sonoda Ken ron 1,300 from Ooi Takaharu | 18% | 32% | 23% | 28% | -5.2 | -1.8 | +1.2 | +5.8 |
| East 3 | Katsumata Kenji tsumo 2,700 | 15% | 30% | 23% | 32% | -0.3 | +7.9 | -8.5 | +1.0 |
| East 4 | Draw | 15% | 36% | 16% | 33% | +4.2 | -4.6 | -3.6 | +4.0 |
| East 4, 1 honba | Ooi Takaharu ron 2,600 from Katsumata Kenji | 17% | 32% | 14% | 36% | +9.0 | -6.8 | -1.2 | -1.0 |
| South 1 | Ooi Takaharu tsumo 12,000 | 23% | 28% | 13% | 36% | +42.4 | -12.5 | -12.5 | -17.3 |
| South 1, 1 honba | Hori Shingo ron 3,900 from Katsumata Kenji | 61% | 15% | 7% | 16% | +2.3 | -13.3 | +9.2 | +1.8 |
| South 2 | Draw | 67% | 8% | 9% | 16% | +1.9 | -6.8 | -2.5 | +7.4 |
| South 3, 1 honba | Draw | 72% | 3% | 8% | 18% | -8.3 | +1.8 | +1.5 | +5.0 |
| South 3, 2 honba | Katsumata Kenji tsumo 4,000 | 61% | 4% | 9% | 25% | +4.4 | +19.6 | -17.2 | -6.9 |
| South 4 | Katsumata Kenji ron 2,000 from Ooi Takaharu | 73% | 9% | 1% | 17% | +10.5 | +12.5 | -4.9 | -18.1 |