Most differences in results are within chance.They are no grounds for criticising players.

Game · 2023-24 Finals

5/6 Game 1

Okada Sayaka finished 1st (+69.6pt). The game was decided in East 1: Okada Sayaka ron 12,000 from Asami Maki, which moved Okada Sayaka's expected points by +31.3.

1st-place probabilityat the start of each hand

0%25%50%75%100%East 1East 4South 2End● Okada Sayaka● Mizuhara Akina● Asami Maki● Matsugase Takaya0%25%50%75%100%East 1South 1End● Okada● Mizuhara● Asami● Matsugase
The chance of finishing 1st, at the start of each hand (estimated by simulation). Shaded: the hand that decided this game.

Hand by handexpected pt change = how much the hand's result moved the expected final points

HandsResultMizuhara Akina
1st-place chance
Asami Maki
1st-place chance
Okada Sayaka
1st-place chance
Matsugase Takaya
1st-place chance
Mizuhara Akina
Expected pt change
Asami Maki
Expected pt change
Okada Sayaka
Expected pt change
Matsugase Takaya
Expected pt change
East 1Okada Sayaka ron 12,000 from Asami Maki24%26%24%26%-2.2-30.0+31.3+0.9
East 2Okada Sayaka ron 2,000 from Mizuhara Akina18%10%48%23%-4.2-4.2+9.3-0.8
East 3Draw16%6%57%21%+0.9+0.4-1.9+0.6
East 4, 1 honbaOkada Sayaka ron 8,000 from Mizuhara Akina16%7%56%21%-20.0+1.2+21.6-2.8
South 1Matsugase Takaya ron 2,600 from Mizuhara Akina4%3%82%11%-9.3-1.0+2.5+7.7
South 2Mizuhara Akina ron 5,200 from Matsugase Takaya0%3%86%11%+15.9-8.3+3.7-11.3
South 3Draw1%0%95%5%-4.3+4.2-1.4+1.5
South 4, 1 honbaOkada Sayaka ron 2,000 from Mizuhara Akina0%0%96%4%-21.8+11.4+5.6+4.8

All 2023-24 games / This game's record (M League Haifu)