Game · 2023-24 Finals
5/7 Game 1
Nakabayashi Kei finished 1st (+58.1pt). The game was decided in East 2, 1 honba: Nakabayashi Kei tsumo 8,000, which moved Nakabayashi Kei's expected points by +25.9.
1st-place probabilityat the start of each hand
Hand by handexpected pt change = how much the hand's result moved the expected final points
| Hands | Result | Uchikawa Kotaro 1st-place chance | Nikaido Aki 1st-place chance | Nakabayashi Kei 1st-place chance | Watanabe Futoshi 1st-place chance | Uchikawa Kotaro Expected pt change | Nikaido Aki Expected pt change | Nakabayashi Kei Expected pt change | Watanabe Futoshi Expected pt change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| East 1 | Draw | 25% | 25% | 25% | 25% | -3.9 | +4.5 | -0.5 | -0.1 |
| East 2, 1 honba | Nakabayashi Kei tsumo 8,000 | 22% | 27% | 25% | 26% | -4.8 | -14.6 | +25.9 | -6.5 |
| East 3 | Watanabe Futoshi ron 12,000 from Uchikawa Kotaro | 19% | 17% | 44% | 20% | -31.9 | +0.9 | -1.3 | +32.4 |
| East 4 | Nikaido Aki ron 5,200 from Watanabe Futoshi | 5% | 15% | 39% | 41% | -1.7 | +12.6 | +3.7 | -14.6 |
| South 1 | Draw | 5% | 23% | 44% | 28% | +3.5 | -1.6 | -3.7 | +1.7 |
| South 1, 1 honba | Nakabayashi Kei ron 2,000 from Uchikawa Kotaro | 6% | 22% | 41% | 31% | -9.5 | -3.2 | +11.5 | +1.3 |
| South 2 | Uchikawa Kotaro tsumo 12,000 | 1% | 17% | 54% | 28% | +36.1 | -23.2 | -5.8 | -7.1 |
| South 3 | Nakabayashi Kei tsumo 6,000 | 14% | 8% | 52% | 27% | -10.6 | -4.0 | +21.9 | -7.4 |
| South 3, 1 honba | Draw | 3% | 2% | 81% | 14% | +7.5 | -6.3 | -0.2 | -1.0 |
| South 4, 2 honba | Uchikawa Kotaro ron 3,900 from Watanabe Futoshi | 3% | 1% | 84% | 12% | +21.2 | -8.3 | +7.2 | -20.1 |