Game · 2023-24 Final Series
5/7 Game 1
Kei Nakabayashi finished 1st (+58.1pt). The game was decided in East 2, 1 honba: Kei Nakabayashi tsumo 8,000, which moved Kei Nakabayashi's expected points by +26.8.
1st-place probabilityat the start of each hand
Hand by handexpected pt change = how much the hand's result moved the expected final points
| Hands | Result | Kotaro Uchikawa 1st-place chance | Aki Nikaido 1st-place chance | Kei Nakabayashi 1st-place chance | Futoshi Watanabe 1st-place chance | Kotaro Uchikawa Expected pt change | Aki Nikaido Expected pt change | Kei Nakabayashi Expected pt change | Futoshi Watanabe Expected pt change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| East 1 | Exhaustive draw | 25% | 26% | 24% | 25% | -4.1 | +4.1 | +0.2 | -0.2 |
| East 2, 1 honba | Kei Nakabayashi tsumo 8,000 | 22% | 28% | 25% | 25% | -3.9 | -16.9 | +26.8 | -6.0 |
| East 3 | Futoshi Watanabe ron 12,000 from Kotaro Uchikawa | 18% | 16% | 45% | 21% | -30.8 | +1.8 | -2.1 | +31.0 |
| East 4 | Aki Nikaido ron 5,200 from Futoshi Watanabe | 4% | 15% | 40% | 40% | -2.1 | +14.6 | +2.1 | -14.6 |
| South 1 | Exhaustive draw | 4% | 23% | 44% | 29% | +5.4 | -4.7 | -3.1 | +2.4 |
| South 1, 1 honba | Kei Nakabayashi ron 2,000 from Kotaro Uchikawa | 7% | 21% | 41% | 31% | -10.3 | -2.2 | +13.2 | -0.7 |
| South 2 | Kotaro Uchikawa tsumo 12,000 | 2% | 16% | 55% | 27% | +34.1 | -21.6 | -5.4 | -7.1 |
| South 3 | Kei Nakabayashi tsumo 6,000 | 14% | 8% | 54% | 25% | -8.3 | -6.0 | +20.5 | -6.2 |
| South 3, 1 honba | Exhaustive draw | 4% | 2% | 80% | 14% | +6.1 | -6.3 | +1.3 | -1.1 |
| South 4, 2 honba | Kotaro Uchikawa ron 3,900 from Futoshi Watanabe | 2% | 1% | 87% | 10% | +21.2 | -7.6 | +5.8 | -19.3 |