Game · 2023-24 Finals
5/9 Game 1
Okada Sayaka finished 1st (+66.4pt). The game was decided in East 2, 1 honba: Okada Sayaka ron 12,000 from Matsugase Takaya, which moved Okada Sayaka's expected points by +31.5.
1st-place probabilityat the start of each hand
Hand by handexpected pt change = how much the hand's result moved the expected final points
| Hands | Result | Matsugase Takaya 1st-place chance | Okada Sayaka 1st-place chance | Nakabayashi Kei 1st-place chance | Sonoda Ken 1st-place chance | Matsugase Takaya Expected pt change | Okada Sayaka Expected pt change | Nakabayashi Kei Expected pt change | Sonoda Ken Expected pt change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| East 1 | Okada Sayaka ron 8,000 from Matsugase Takaya | 26% | 24% | 26% | 25% | -22.7 | +24.5 | -0.9 | -0.9 |
| East 2 | Draw | 11% | 42% | 23% | 23% | -2.6 | +1.5 | +4.5 | -3.3 |
| East 2, 1 honba | Okada Sayaka ron 12,000 from Matsugase Takaya | 11% | 44% | 25% | 21% | -25.5 | +31.5 | -2.9 | -3.1 |
| East 2, 2 honba | Okada Sayaka tsumo 18,000 | 2% | 71% | 16% | 12% | -6.2 | +28.2 | -12.1 | -9.9 |
| East 2, 3 honba | Nakabayashi Kei tsumo 2,700 | 0% | 93% | 4% | 3% | -3.1 | -2.1 | +6.9 | -1.7 |
| East 3 | Matsugase Takaya ron 2,000 from Okada Sayaka | 0% | 93% | 4% | 2% | +5.2 | -1.7 | -3.6 | +0.1 |
| East 4 | Sonoda Ken tsumo 12,000 | 1% | 94% | 3% | 3% | -8.0 | -5.2 | -9.2 | +22.4 |
| East 4, 1 honba | Matsugase Takaya tsumo 4,000 | 0% | 89% | 3% | 8% | +6.6 | -1.0 | -2.6 | -2.9 |
| South 1 | Matsugase Takaya tsumo 6,000 | 1% | 92% | 2% | 6% | +10.0 | -0.5 | -4.3 | -5.2 |
| South 1, 1 honba | Nakabayashi Kei tsumo 8,000 | 1% | 93% | 2% | 4% | -12.8 | -2.9 | +21.3 | -5.6 |
| South 2 | Okada Sayaka ron 12,000 from Matsugase Takaya | 0% | 91% | 5% | 4% | -14.2 | +16.1 | -0.6 | -1.3 |
| South 2, 1 honba | Sonoda Ken tsumo 12,000 | 0% | 98% | 1% | 1% | -3.5 | -9.4 | -10.9 | +23.8 |
| South 3 | Draw | 0% | 93% | 2% | 5% | -2.9 | +1.8 | +1.7 | -0.5 |
| South 3, 1 honba | Draw | 0% | 95% | 2% | 4% | -0.6 | -1.4 | +3.0 | -0.9 |
| South 3, 2 honba | Draw | 0% | 93% | 2% | 5% | +0.9 | -1.4 | +3.7 | -3.1 |
| South 3, 3 honba | Nakabayashi Kei ron 12,000 from Okada Sayaka | 0% | 93% | 3% | 4% | -0.7 | -25.4 | +35.8 | -9.8 |
| South 3, 4 honba | Sonoda Ken ron 1,000 from Okada Sayaka | 0% | 65% | 27% | 8% | +0.5 | +0.7 | -5.5 | +4.4 |
| South 4 | Okada Sayaka tsumo 1,500 | 0% | 71% | 18% | 11% | -0.4 | +14.5 | -4.0 | -10.2 |