Game · 2023-24 Final Series
5/9 Game 1
Sayaka Okada finished 1st (+66.4pt). The game was decided in East 2, 1 honba: Sayaka Okada ron 12,000 from Takaya Matsugase, which moved Sayaka Okada's expected points by +30.8.
1st-place probabilityat the start of each hand
Hand by handexpected pt change = how much the hand's result moved the expected final points
| Hands | Result | Takaya Matsugase 1st-place chance | Sayaka Okada 1st-place chance | Kei Nakabayashi 1st-place chance | Ken Sonoda 1st-place chance | Takaya Matsugase Expected pt change | Sayaka Okada Expected pt change | Kei Nakabayashi Expected pt change | Ken Sonoda Expected pt change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| East 1 | Sayaka Okada ron 8,000 from Takaya Matsugase | 24% | 25% | 25% | 26% | -19.5 | +22.2 | +0.4 | -3.1 |
| East 2 | Exhaustive draw | 12% | 41% | 24% | 23% | -3.4 | +1.5 | +4.3 | -2.3 |
| East 2, 1 honba | Sayaka Okada ron 12,000 from Takaya Matsugase | 10% | 44% | 25% | 21% | -25.7 | +30.8 | -4.1 | -1.1 |
| East 2, 2 honba | Sayaka Okada tsumo 18,000 | 2% | 71% | 15% | 12% | -5.7 | +29.1 | -12.4 | -11.0 |
| East 2, 3 honba | Kei Nakabayashi tsumo 2,700 | 0% | 93% | 3% | 4% | -1.9 | -2.6 | +8.1 | -3.6 |
| East 3 | Takaya Matsugase ron 2,000 from Sayaka Okada | 0% | 93% | 5% | 2% | +3.1 | -1.4 | -3.0 | +1.3 |
| East 4 | Ken Sonoda tsumo 12,000 | 0% | 95% | 3% | 2% | -6.7 | -6.1 | -10.2 | +23.0 |
| East 4, 1 honba | Takaya Matsugase tsumo 4,000 | 1% | 89% | 3% | 8% | +5.1 | +0.2 | -0.5 | -4.8 |
| South 1 | Takaya Matsugase tsumo 6,000 | 1% | 92% | 3% | 5% | +10.9 | -2.1 | -5.8 | -3.0 |
| South 1, 1 honba | Kei Nakabayashi tsumo 8,000 | 1% | 92% | 2% | 5% | -13.2 | -2.0 | +21.1 | -6.0 |
| South 2 | Sayaka Okada ron 12,000 from Takaya Matsugase | 0% | 92% | 5% | 4% | -13.7 | +15.9 | -1.3 | -0.9 |
| South 2, 1 honba | Ken Sonoda tsumo 12,000 | 0% | 98% | 1% | 1% | -3.3 | -8.4 | -10.5 | +22.2 |
| South 3 | Exhaustive draw | 0% | 95% | 1% | 4% | -2.9 | +1.4 | +0.7 | +0.9 |
| South 3, 1 honba | Exhaustive draw | 0% | 95% | 1% | 3% | -0.8 | -1.2 | +4.0 | -2.0 |
| South 3, 2 honba | Exhaustive draw | 0% | 94% | 2% | 4% | +1.2 | -2.0 | +3.1 | -2.2 |
| South 3, 3 honba | Kei Nakabayashi ron 12,000 from Sayaka Okada | 0% | 93% | 3% | 5% | -1.0 | -25.8 | +36.3 | -9.5 |
| South 3, 4 honba | Ken Sonoda ron 1,000 from Sayaka Okada | 0% | 65% | 27% | 9% | +0.5 | +1.4 | -5.8 | +3.9 |
| South 4 | Sayaka Okada tsumo 1,500 | 0% | 72% | 17% | 11% | -0.4 | +14.2 | -3.3 | -10.5 |