Game · 2023-24 Final Series
5/9 Game 2
Futoshi Watanabe finished 1st (+54.9pt). The game was decided in East 3: Futoshi Watanabe tsumo 12,000, which moved Futoshi Watanabe's expected points by +28.6.
1st-place probabilityat the start of each hand
Hand by handexpected pt change = how much the hand's result moved the expected final points
| Hands | Result | Shingo Hori 1st-place chance | Kenji Katsumata 1st-place chance | Futoshi Watanabe 1st-place chance | Akina Mizuhara 1st-place chance | Shingo Hori Expected pt change | Kenji Katsumata Expected pt change | Futoshi Watanabe Expected pt change | Akina Mizuhara Expected pt change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| East 1 | Futoshi Watanabe tsumo 8,000 | 26% | 25% | 24% | 26% | -14.4 | -5.1 | +23.5 | -4.0 |
| East 2 | Akina Mizuhara ron 8,000 from Kenji Katsumata | 15% | 22% | 41% | 23% | +0.6 | -23.3 | +2.3 | +20.5 |
| East 3 | Futoshi Watanabe tsumo 12,000 | 14% | 9% | 41% | 37% | -8.8 | -7.7 | +28.6 | -12.1 |
| East 3, 1 honba | Kenji Katsumata tsumo 12,000 | 7% | 4% | 70% | 19% | -9.0 | +32.6 | -12.1 | -11.5 |
| East 4 | Exhaustive draw | 6% | 17% | 61% | 16% | +1.1 | -2.0 | -3.6 | +4.5 |
| East 4, 1 honba | Futoshi Watanabe ron 3,900 from Kenji Katsumata | 7% | 17% | 56% | 20% | -1.0 | -15.8 | +20.1 | -3.3 |
| South 1 | Shingo Hori tsumo 3,000 | 4% | 6% | 80% | 10% | +7.6 | -3.4 | -1.5 | -2.7 |
| South 1, 1 honba | Shingo Hori ron 12,000 from Kenji Katsumata | 5% | 5% | 80% | 10% | +31.0 | -26.2 | -3.8 | -1.0 |
| South 1, 2 honba | Akina Mizuhara tsumo 4,000 | 17% | 2% | 71% | 10% | -12.6 | -2.2 | +1.7 | +13.1 |
| South 2 | Kenji Katsumata tsumo 18,000 | 7% | 1% | 77% | 15% | -17.2 | +42.3 | -11.5 | -13.6 |
| South 2, 1 honba | Kenji Katsumata tsumo 6,000 | 7% | 14% | 66% | 14% | -7.2 | +19.4 | -6.2 | -6.0 |
| South 2, 2 honba | Futoshi Watanabe tsumo 8,000 | 5% | 25% | 59% | 12% | -4.9 | -16.0 | +26.3 | -5.4 |
| South 3 | Akina Mizuhara ron 8,000 from Futoshi Watanabe | 1% | 3% | 92% | 5% | -7.0 | -6.7 | -15.0 | +28.7 |
| South 4 | Kenji Katsumata tsumo 4,000 | 0% | 3% | 80% | 16% | -5.2 | +20.8 | +8.0 | -23.6 |