Game · 2023-24 Final Series
5/10 Game 2
Aki Nikaido finished 1st (+77.1pt). The game was decided in East 2, 1 honba: Aki Nikaido tsumo 12,000, which moved Aki Nikaido's expected points by +34.2.
1st-place probabilityat the start of each hand
Hand by handexpected pt change = how much the hand's result moved the expected final points
| Hands | Result | Futoshi Watanabe 1st-place chance | Go Kobayashi 1st-place chance | Shingo Hori 1st-place chance | Aki Nikaido 1st-place chance | Futoshi Watanabe Expected pt change | Go Kobayashi Expected pt change | Shingo Hori Expected pt change | Aki Nikaido Expected pt change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| East 1 | Exhaustive draw | 24% | 25% | 25% | 26% | +5.7 | +4.5 | -4.6 | -5.6 |
| East 1, 1 honba | Go Kobayashi tsumo 8,000 | 28% | 29% | 21% | 22% | -13.1 | +23.4 | -6.3 | -4.0 |
| East 2 | Go Kobayashi ron 2,900 from Aki Nikaido | 18% | 47% | 16% | 19% | -2.1 | +9.8 | +1.0 | -8.7 |
| East 2, 1 honba | Aki Nikaido tsumo 12,000 | 14% | 56% | 17% | 13% | -9.9 | -16.7 | -7.6 | +34.2 |
| East 3 | Aki Nikaido tsumo 2,000 | 12% | 39% | 14% | 35% | -2.2 | +2.0 | -6.8 | +7.0 |
| East 4 | Go Kobayashi ron 8,000 from Shingo Hori | 9% | 41% | 9% | 41% | +1.2 | +20.4 | -17.3 | -4.4 |
| South 1 | Futoshi Watanabe ron 1,500 from Shingo Hori | 7% | 61% | 3% | 29% | +5.0 | -0.2 | -4.9 | 0.0 |
| South 1, 1 honba | Aki Nikaido tsumo 8,000 | 8% | 60% | 2% | 30% | -11.5 | -9.5 | -3.4 | +24.4 |
| South 2 | Shingo Hori tsumo 8,000 | 2% | 40% | 2% | 57% | -7.4 | -11.5 | +16.4 | +2.5 |
| South 3 | Futoshi Watanabe ron 8,000 from Aki Nikaido | 1% | 28% | 4% | 68% | +20.8 | +17.6 | -10.5 | -27.9 |
| South 4 | Aki Nikaido ron 7,700 from Futoshi Watanabe | 5% | 70% | 0% | 25% | -18.5 | -18.5 | +5.6 | +31.4 |
| South 4, 1 honba | Aki Nikaido ron 18,000 from Go Kobayashi | 0% | 22% | 0% | 78% | +8.9 | -43.5 | +6.4 | +28.3 |
| South 4, 2 honba | Shingo Hori ron 2,000 from Futoshi Watanabe | 0% | 0% | 0% | 100% | -23.8 | -3.3 | +28.2 | -1.1 |