Most differences in results are within chance.They are no grounds for criticising players.

Game · 2023-24 Finals

5/14 Game 1

Suzuki Taro finished 1st (+69.7pt). The game was decided in South 4: Suzuki Taro tsumo 12,000, which moved Suzuki Taro's expected points by +31.4.

1st-place probabilityat the start of each hand

0%25%50%75%100%East 1South 2South 4End● Suzuki Taro● Katsumata Kenji● Nakabayashi Kei● Okada Sayaka0%25%50%75%100%East 1South 3End● Suzuki● Katsumata● Nakabayashi● Okada
The chance of finishing 1st, at the start of each hand (estimated by simulation). Shaded: the hand that decided this game.

Hand by handexpected pt change = how much the hand's result moved the expected final points

HandsResultKatsumata Kenji
1st-place chance
Nakabayashi Kei
1st-place chance
Okada Sayaka
1st-place chance
Suzuki Taro
1st-place chance
Katsumata Kenji
Expected pt change
Nakabayashi Kei
Expected pt change
Okada Sayaka
Expected pt change
Suzuki Taro
Expected pt change
East 1Nakabayashi Kei tsumo 2,00024%24%26%26%-5.1+6.8-1.4-0.3
East 2Suzuki Taro ron 8,000 from Okada Sayaka21%30%24%26%+1.50.0-21.3+19.7
East 3Nakabayashi Kei ron 2,600 from Katsumata Kenji20%28%13%40%-6.9+9.6-3.7+1.0
East 4Okada Sayaka tsumo 4,00015%35%9%40%-4.4-0.4+10.3-5.5
South 1Draw14%36%14%36%-5.6+12.0-4.6-1.8
South 2, 1 honbaNakabayashi Kei tsumo 2,10010%48%11%31%-2.1+8.0-1.8-4.1
South 2, 2 honbaOkada Sayaka tsumo 1,1008%57%9%26%-3.8+1.1+6.8-4.1
South 3Okada Sayaka ron 12,000 from Suzuki Taro6%62%11%21%+1.7-5.0+41.9-38.5
South 3, 1 honbaOkada Sayaka ron 1,500 from Nakabayashi Kei4%50%41%5%-0.2-10.2+10.2+0.2
South 3, 2 honbaOkada Sayaka ron 3,900 from Katsumata Kenji3%34%58%6%-12.1-4.1+13.2+3.0
South 3, 3 honbaSuzuki Taro tsumo 2,7001%20%76%4%-7.9-2.5-0.5+10.9
South 4Suzuki Taro tsumo 12,0000%14%80%6%-6.5-16.1-8.8+31.4
South 4, 1 honbaSuzuki Taro ron 2,000 from Katsumata Kenji0%11%70%19%-3.8-2.2-3.4+9.3
South 4, 2 honbaDraw0%10%63%27%+0.7-2.9-8.9+11.1
South 4, 3 honbaSuzuki Taro ron 1,500 from Katsumata Kenji0%9%43%47%-2.6-2.3-11.1+16.0
South 4, 4 honbaSuzuki Taro ron 12,000 from Okada Sayaka0%6%19%75%+0.4+11.3-35.1+23.4
South 4, 5 honbaNakabayashi Kei tsumo 2,0000%0%0%100%-1.6+7.3-3.2-2.5

All 2023-24 games / This game's record (M League Haifu)