Game · 2023-24 Final Series
5/14 Game 1
Taro Suzuki finished 1st (+69.7pt). The game was decided in South 4: Taro Suzuki tsumo 12,000, which moved Taro Suzuki's expected points by +32.3.
1st-place probabilityat the start of each hand
Hand by handexpected pt change = how much the hand's result moved the expected final points
| Hands | Result | Kenji Katsumata 1st-place chance | Kei Nakabayashi 1st-place chance | Sayaka Okada 1st-place chance | Taro Suzuki 1st-place chance | Kenji Katsumata Expected pt change | Kei Nakabayashi Expected pt change | Sayaka Okada Expected pt change | Taro Suzuki Expected pt change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| East 1 | Kei Nakabayashi tsumo 2,000 | 25% | 24% | 25% | 26% | -4.3 | +5.6 | -0.2 | -1.1 |
| East 2 | Taro Suzuki ron 8,000 from Sayaka Okada | 22% | 29% | 24% | 25% | +0.6 | -2.9 | -20.2 | +22.5 |
| East 3 | Kei Nakabayashi ron 2,600 from Kenji Katsumata | 20% | 24% | 13% | 43% | -7.4 | +12.3 | -2.8 | -2.1 |
| East 4 | Sayaka Okada tsumo 4,000 | 15% | 34% | 10% | 40% | -2.8 | -2.1 | +10.5 | -5.6 |
| South 1 | Exhaustive draw | 16% | 33% | 15% | 36% | -7.5 | +13.8 | -3.5 | -2.8 |
| South 2, 1 honba | Kei Nakabayashi tsumo 2,100 | 9% | 47% | 13% | 31% | -3.4 | +7.2 | -2.8 | -0.9 |
| South 2, 2 honba | Sayaka Okada tsumo 1,100 | 6% | 56% | 10% | 28% | -1.7 | +2.0 | +4.4 | -4.7 |
| South 3 | Sayaka Okada ron 12,000 from Taro Suzuki | 5% | 62% | 11% | 22% | +0.8 | -4.3 | +43.2 | -39.7 |
| South 3, 1 honba | Sayaka Okada ron 1,500 from Kei Nakabayashi | 4% | 51% | 40% | 5% | +0.7 | -7.9 | +7.4 | -0.1 |
| South 3, 2 honba | Sayaka Okada ron 3,900 from Kenji Katsumata | 4% | 37% | 54% | 5% | -13.0 | -6.2 | +15.6 | +3.5 |
| South 3, 3 honba | Taro Suzuki tsumo 2,700 | 1% | 22% | 74% | 4% | -6.6 | -3.4 | +0.3 | +9.6 |
| South 4 | Taro Suzuki tsumo 12,000 | 0% | 14% | 81% | 5% | -7.3 | -15.0 | -9.9 | +32.3 |
| South 4, 1 honba | Taro Suzuki ron 2,000 from Kenji Katsumata | 0% | 12% | 69% | 19% | -3.7 | -4.0 | -2.3 | +10.0 |
| South 4, 2 honba | Exhaustive draw | 0% | 9% | 64% | 27% | +0.8 | -2.1 | -10.0 | +11.3 |
| South 4, 3 honba | Taro Suzuki ron 1,500 from Kenji Katsumata | 0% | 9% | 43% | 48% | -2.8 | -2.0 | -11.5 | +16.3 |
| South 4, 4 honba | Taro Suzuki ron 12,000 from Sayaka Okada | 0% | 6% | 17% | 77% | +0.5 | +11.2 | -34.3 | +22.6 |
| South 4, 5 honba | Kei Nakabayashi tsumo 2,000 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 100% | -1.6 | +7.4 | -3.1 | -2.6 |