Game · 2023-24 Finals
5/16 Game 1
Mizuhara Akina finished 1st (+56.6pt). The game was decided in South 2: Mizuhara Akina tsumo 7,800, which moved Mizuhara Akina's expected points by +30.1.
1st-place probabilityat the start of each hand
Hand by handexpected pt change = how much the hand's result moved the expected final points
| Hands | Result | Matsugase Takaya 1st-place chance | Mizuhara Akina 1st-place chance | Watanabe Futoshi 1st-place chance | Shibukawa Namba 1st-place chance | Matsugase Takaya Expected pt change | Mizuhara Akina Expected pt change | Watanabe Futoshi Expected pt change | Shibukawa Namba Expected pt change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| East 1 | Matsugase Takaya ron 4,800 from Watanabe Futoshi | 24% | 26% | 26% | 25% | +11.6 | -1.5 | -12.3 | +2.1 |
| East 1, 1 honba | Shibukawa Namba tsumo 8,000 | 33% | 24% | 16% | 27% | -10.6 | -5.0 | -5.8 | +21.3 |
| East 2 | Draw | 24% | 21% | 14% | 42% | -2.9 | -3.7 | +3.4 | +3.2 |
| East 3, 1 honba | Shibukawa Namba tsumo 2,700 | 21% | 17% | 16% | 46% | -3.4 | -3.6 | -8.7 | +15.8 |
| East 4 | Mizuhara Akina tsumo 2,700 | 16% | 13% | 9% | 63% | -1.8 | +9.7 | -4.9 | -2.9 |
| South 1 | Watanabe Futoshi ron 5,200 from Shibukawa Namba | 15% | 18% | 8% | 60% | -2.3 | -0.3 | +13.2 | -10.6 |
| South 2 | Mizuhara Akina tsumo 7,800 | 15% | 20% | 14% | 51% | -9.5 | +30.1 | -10.9 | -9.7 |
| South 2, 1 honba | Mizuhara Akina tsumo 6,000 | 9% | 45% | 9% | 37% | -7.2 | +22.2 | -4.1 | -10.9 |
| South 2, 2 honba | Mizuhara Akina tsumo 1,500 | 3% | 73% | 5% | 19% | -1.3 | +5.6 | -1.7 | -2.6 |
| South 2, 3 honba | Mizuhara Akina ron 2,900 from Watanabe Futoshi | 2% | 80% | 4% | 15% | +0.1 | +6.3 | -6.6 | +0.2 |
| South 2, 4 honba | Draw | 1% | 85% | 2% | 11% | +1.8 | -2.3 | +2.9 | -2.3 |
| South 3, 5 honba | Watanabe Futoshi tsumo 3,900 | 1% | 86% | 3% | 10% | -6.9 | -2.6 | +15.4 | -5.9 |
| South 3, 6 honba | Watanabe Futoshi tsumo 12,000 | 1% | 84% | 6% | 9% | -12.0 | -11.9 | +38.7 | -14.8 |
| South 3, 7 honba | Draw | 0% | 68% | 24% | 7% | -1.1 | +4.4 | -6.2 | +2.9 |
| South 4, 8 honba | Shibukawa Namba tsumo 6,000 | 0% | 80% | 13% | 7% | -5.8 | -9.5 | -18.4 | +33.7 |
| South 4, 9 honba | Draw | 0% | 67% | 8% | 26% | +0.1 | +18.0 | -8.2 | -9.9 |