Game · 2023-24 Final Series
5/16 Game 1
Akina Mizuhara finished 1st (+56.6pt). The game was decided in South 2: Akina Mizuhara tsumo 7,800, which moved Akina Mizuhara's expected points by +29.2.
1st-place probabilityat the start of each hand
Hand by handexpected pt change = how much the hand's result moved the expected final points
| Hands | Result | Takaya Matsugase 1st-place chance | Akina Mizuhara 1st-place chance | Futoshi Watanabe 1st-place chance | Namba Shibukawa 1st-place chance | Takaya Matsugase Expected pt change | Akina Mizuhara Expected pt change | Futoshi Watanabe Expected pt change | Namba Shibukawa Expected pt change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| East 1 | Takaya Matsugase ron 4,800 from Futoshi Watanabe | 24% | 25% | 24% | 26% | +11.9 | -1.6 | -12.0 | +1.7 |
| East 1, 1 honba | Namba Shibukawa tsumo 8,000 | 32% | 26% | 16% | 27% | -12.4 | -5.5 | -3.3 | +21.2 |
| East 2 | Exhaustive draw | 21% | 20% | 15% | 43% | -1.3 | -4.4 | +2.6 | +3.1 |
| East 3, 1 honba | Namba Shibukawa tsumo 2,700 | 20% | 17% | 16% | 47% | -1.7 | -4.2 | -8.9 | +14.7 |
| East 4 | Akina Mizuhara tsumo 2,700 | 17% | 12% | 9% | 63% | -2.5 | +11.9 | -6.2 | -3.2 |
| South 1 | Futoshi Watanabe ron 5,200 from Namba Shibukawa | 15% | 18% | 6% | 60% | -3.0 | -0.6 | +13.0 | -9.3 |
| South 2 | Akina Mizuhara tsumo 7,800 | 14% | 20% | 14% | 52% | -9.2 | +29.2 | -9.0 | -10.9 |
| South 2, 1 honba | Akina Mizuhara tsumo 6,000 | 8% | 46% | 10% | 36% | -7.0 | +20.9 | -5.1 | -8.7 |
| South 2, 2 honba | Akina Mizuhara tsumo 1,500 | 3% | 71% | 5% | 21% | -0.5 | +6.8 | -1.7 | -4.6 |
| South 2, 3 honba | Akina Mizuhara ron 2,900 from Futoshi Watanabe | 2% | 79% | 4% | 15% | +0.9 | +4.8 | -6.6 | +1.0 |
| South 2, 4 honba | Exhaustive draw | 2% | 82% | 3% | 13% | +0.9 | +0.6 | +1.6 | -3.1 |
| South 3, 5 honba | Futoshi Watanabe tsumo 3,900 | 1% | 88% | 3% | 9% | -7.5 | -3.4 | +15.4 | -4.6 |
| South 3, 6 honba | Futoshi Watanabe tsumo 12,000 | 1% | 86% | 5% | 9% | -11.0 | -13.5 | +40.7 | -16.2 |
| South 3, 7 honba | Exhaustive draw | 1% | 66% | 26% | 8% | -1.9 | +5.1 | -7.1 | +4.0 |
| South 4, 8 honba | Namba Shibukawa tsumo 6,000 | 0% | 79% | 12% | 9% | -5.9 | -8.3 | -18.1 | +32.3 |
| South 4, 9 honba | Exhaustive draw | 0% | 67% | 8% | 25% | +0.2 | +17.4 | -8.5 | -9.1 |