Game · 2023-24 Finals
5/17 Game 2
Sonoda Ken finished 1st (+77.0pt). The game was decided in East 4: Sonoda Ken tsumo 12,000, which moved Sonoda Ken's expected points by +32.9.
1st-place probabilityat the start of each hand
Hand by handexpected pt change = how much the hand's result moved the expected final points
| Hands | Result | Hori Shingo 1st-place chance | Katsumata Kenji 1st-place chance | Sonoda Ken 1st-place chance | Nakabayashi Kei 1st-place chance | Hori Shingo Expected pt change | Katsumata Kenji Expected pt change | Sonoda Ken Expected pt change | Nakabayashi Kei Expected pt change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| East 1 | Draw | 25% | 24% | 25% | 27% | +2.3 | +3.1 | -7.1 | +1.8 |
| East 1, 1 honba | Nakabayashi Kei ron 5,200 from Hori Shingo | 26% | 26% | 20% | 28% | -14.9 | -2.2 | -0.5 | +17.6 |
| East 2 | Hori Shingo tsumo 8,000 | 16% | 24% | 19% | 42% | +21.2 | -12.2 | -4.1 | -5.0 |
| East 3 | Sonoda Ken tsumo 12,000 | 29% | 15% | 19% | 37% | -12.4 | -10.9 | +30.8 | -7.5 |
| East 3, 1 honba | Nakabayashi Kei ron 8,000 from Katsumata Kenji | 20% | 11% | 38% | 31% | +0.6 | -17.4 | -1.5 | +18.3 |
| East 4 | Sonoda Ken tsumo 12,000 | 18% | 5% | 34% | 44% | -7.2 | -7.1 | +32.9 | -18.6 |
| South 1 | Sonoda Ken ron 8,000 from Nakabayashi Kei | 9% | 2% | 70% | 19% | +0.8 | 0.0 | +20.6 | -21.3 |
| South 2 | Hori Shingo ron 2,600 from Katsumata Kenji | 2% | 1% | 94% | 3% | +9.2 | -9.2 | +1.0 | -1.0 |
| South 3 | Hori Shingo ron 1,600 from Katsumata Kenji | 1% | 0% | 96% | 3% | +4.1 | -2.4 | -0.3 | -1.4 |
| South 4 | Sonoda Ken tsumo 4,000 | 0% | 0% | 98% | 2% | +2.8 | -0.8 | +5.4 | -7.3 |