Game · 2023-24 Final Series
5/17 Game 2
Ken Sonoda finished 1st (+77.0pt). The game was decided in East 4: Ken Sonoda tsumo 12,000, which moved Ken Sonoda's expected points by +35.5.
1st-place probabilityat the start of each hand
Hand by handexpected pt change = how much the hand's result moved the expected final points
| Hands | Result | Shingo Hori 1st-place chance | Kenji Katsumata 1st-place chance | Ken Sonoda 1st-place chance | Kei Nakabayashi 1st-place chance | Shingo Hori Expected pt change | Kenji Katsumata Expected pt change | Ken Sonoda Expected pt change | Kei Nakabayashi Expected pt change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| East 1 | Exhaustive draw | 26% | 24% | 25% | 25% | +2.9 | +1.2 | -6.6 | +2.5 |
| East 1, 1 honba | Kei Nakabayashi ron 5,200 from Shingo Hori | 27% | 26% | 20% | 26% | -16.2 | -1.7 | +0.3 | +17.7 |
| East 2 | Shingo Hori tsumo 8,000 | 16% | 23% | 20% | 40% | +21.5 | -11.8 | -6.6 | -3.1 |
| East 3 | Ken Sonoda tsumo 12,000 | 29% | 16% | 17% | 38% | -11.9 | -10.3 | +35.3 | -13.1 |
| East 3, 1 honba | Kei Nakabayashi ron 8,000 from Kenji Katsumata | 21% | 11% | 41% | 26% | +1.2 | -18.4 | -6.1 | +23.3 |
| East 4 | Ken Sonoda tsumo 12,000 | 20% | 5% | 30% | 45% | -10.3 | -6.0 | +35.5 | -19.2 |
| South 1 | Ken Sonoda ron 8,000 from Kei Nakabayashi | 8% | 2% | 70% | 19% | +1.4 | -0.9 | +20.9 | -21.5 |
| South 2 | Shingo Hori ron 2,600 from Kenji Katsumata | 1% | 1% | 95% | 3% | +8.6 | -8.8 | -0.2 | +0.3 |
| South 3 | Shingo Hori ron 1,600 from Kenji Katsumata | 1% | 0% | 95% | 3% | +4.8 | -2.8 | 0.0 | -2.1 |
| South 4 | Ken Sonoda tsumo 4,000 | 0% | 0% | 98% | 2% | +3.1 | -1.0 | +5.7 | -7.8 |