Game · 2023-24 Regular Season
1/4 Game 1
Kei Nakabayashi finished 1st (+55.6pt). The game was decided in East 2, 1 honba: Kei Nakabayashi tsumo 2,000, which moved Kei Nakabayashi's expected points by +13.6.
1st-place probabilityat the start of each hand
Hand by handexpected pt change = how much the hand's result moved the expected final points
| Hands | Result | Daisuke Suzuki 1st-place chance | Arisa Date 1st-place chance | Kei Nakabayashi 1st-place chance | Yoshihiro Matsumoto 1st-place chance | Daisuke Suzuki Expected pt change | Arisa Date Expected pt change | Kei Nakabayashi Expected pt change | Yoshihiro Matsumoto Expected pt change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| East 1 | Exhaustive draw | 25% | 25% | 24% | 26% | -4.5 | +1.7 | +4.6 | -1.8 |
| East 2, 1 honba | Kei Nakabayashi tsumo 2,000 | 22% | 25% | 27% | 26% | -2.5 | -7.8 | +13.6 | -3.3 |
| East 3 | Daisuke Suzuki tsumo 2,000 | 20% | 21% | 37% | 22% | +7.2 | -0.3 | -4.6 | -2.2 |
| East 4 | Yoshihiro Matsumoto ron 7,700 from Arisa Date | 25% | 21% | 32% | 22% | -2.6 | -21.0 | +1.6 | +22.0 |
| East 4, 1 honba | Kei Nakabayashi ron 1,000 from Arisa Date | 21% | 10% | 32% | 36% | -0.1 | -4.1 | +5.4 | -1.2 |
| South 1 | Kei Nakabayashi ron 2,000 from Daisuke Suzuki | 21% | 8% | 39% | 33% | -7.0 | -3.1 | +6.6 | +3.5 |
| South 2 | Kei Nakabayashi ron 1,000 from Daisuke Suzuki | 14% | 7% | 44% | 36% | -4.7 | -5.3 | +9.8 | +0.2 |
| South 3 | Kei Nakabayashi tsumo 1,500 | 10% | 2% | 56% | 32% | -2.3 | 0.0 | +5.6 | -3.3 |
| South 3, 1 honba | Yoshihiro Matsumoto ron 1,600 from Daisuke Suzuki | 6% | 1% | 65% | 27% | -8.1 | -2.6 | +3.1 | +7.6 |
| South 4 | Arisa Date ron 8,000 from Daisuke Suzuki | 1% | 0% | 73% | 26% | -25.6 | +24.1 | +11.9 | -10.4 |