Game · 2023-24 Regular Season
1/4 Game 2
Sugawara Hiroe finished 1st (+54.0pt). The game was decided in East 2: Sugawara Hiroe tsumo 12,000, which moved Sugawara Hiroe's expected points by +32.0.
1st-place probabilityat the start of each hand
Hand by handexpected pt change = how much the hand's result moved the expected final points
| Hands | Result | Nakabayashi Kei 1st-place chance | Sugawara Hiroe 1st-place chance | Shiratori Sho 1st-place chance | Takamiya Mari 1st-place chance | Nakabayashi Kei Expected pt change | Sugawara Hiroe Expected pt change | Shiratori Sho Expected pt change | Takamiya Mari Expected pt change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| East 1 | Draw | 24% | 24% | 27% | 25% | +2.5 | +3.1 | -8.6 | +3.0 |
| East 1, 1 honba | Nakabayashi Kei ron 2,900 from Takamiya Mari | 27% | 27% | 20% | 26% | +7.2 | -1.3 | +0.5 | -6.4 |
| East 1, 2 honba | Shiratori Sho tsumo 2,000 | 32% | 25% | 21% | 22% | -4.4 | -1.5 | +7.4 | -1.4 |
| East 2 | Sugawara Hiroe tsumo 12,000 | 27% | 26% | 25% | 23% | -9.8 | +32.0 | -10.8 | -11.5 |
| East 2, 1 honba | Takamiya Mari tsumo 8,000 | 18% | 51% | 16% | 14% | -4.7 | -11.1 | -6.6 | +22.4 |
| East 3 | Draw | 17% | 41% | 15% | 26% | +8.5 | -0.2 | -5.3 | -3.0 |
| East 4, 1 honba | Sugawara Hiroe tsumo 4,000 | 22% | 41% | 11% | 25% | -6.7 | +17.9 | -4.4 | -6.9 |
| South 1 | Draw | 15% | 62% | 7% | 16% | -4.3 | +2.0 | +6.0 | -3.8 |
| South 2, 1 honba | Draw | 11% | 65% | 10% | 14% | -4.7 | -1.8 | +8.6 | -2.1 |
| South 3, 2 honba | Draw | 8% | 66% | 13% | 14% | -4.6 | -4.1 | +1.9 | +6.8 |
| South 3, 3 honba | Takamiya Mari ron 8,000 from Nakabayashi Kei | 8% | 60% | 15% | 18% | -26.5 | +3.2 | -7.6 | +30.9 |
| South 4 | Nakabayashi Kei ron 2,000 from Takamiya Mari | 0% | 64% | 2% | 34% | -0.1 | +15.8 | -0.1 | -15.6 |