Game · 2023-24 Regular Season
1/4 Game 2
Hiroe Sugawara finished 1st (+54.0pt). The game was decided in East 2: Hiroe Sugawara tsumo 12,000, which moved Hiroe Sugawara's expected points by +31.8.
1st-place probabilityat the start of each hand
Hand by handexpected pt change = how much the hand's result moved the expected final points
| Hands | Result | Kei Nakabayashi 1st-place chance | Hiroe Sugawara 1st-place chance | Sho Shiratori 1st-place chance | Mari Takamiya 1st-place chance | Kei Nakabayashi Expected pt change | Hiroe Sugawara Expected pt change | Sho Shiratori Expected pt change | Mari Takamiya Expected pt change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| East 1 | Exhaustive draw | 25% | 26% | 24% | 25% | +3.4 | +1.5 | -6.4 | +1.5 |
| East 1, 1 honba | Kei Nakabayashi ron 2,900 from Mari Takamiya | 27% | 26% | 22% | 26% | +8.6 | -0.4 | -1.5 | -6.6 |
| East 1, 2 honba | Sho Shiratori tsumo 2,000 | 33% | 26% | 19% | 21% | -6.6 | -1.2 | +9.6 | -1.8 |
| East 2 | Hiroe Sugawara tsumo 12,000 | 27% | 25% | 27% | 22% | -10.3 | +31.8 | -11.9 | -9.5 |
| East 2, 1 honba | Mari Takamiya tsumo 8,000 | 17% | 51% | 17% | 15% | -2.1 | -11.8 | -6.3 | +20.2 |
| East 3 | Exhaustive draw | 18% | 40% | 15% | 27% | +4.1 | +1.0 | -6.8 | +1.7 |
| East 4, 1 honba | Hiroe Sugawara tsumo 4,000 | 21% | 41% | 11% | 28% | -3.2 | +17.9 | -3.2 | -11.6 |
| South 1 | Exhaustive draw | 16% | 62% | 7% | 15% | -4.0 | +0.3 | +5.2 | -1.5 |
| South 2, 1 honba | Exhaustive draw | 12% | 64% | 9% | 15% | -5.3 | -0.1 | +9.2 | -3.8 |
| South 3, 2 honba | Exhaustive draw | 7% | 67% | 13% | 13% | -3.3 | -4.3 | +0.3 | +7.4 |
| South 3, 3 honba | Mari Takamiya ron 8,000 from Kei Nakabayashi | 8% | 61% | 13% | 18% | -28.9 | +3.4 | -4.8 | +30.4 |
| South 4 | Kei Nakabayashi ron 2,000 from Mari Takamiya | 0% | 65% | 2% | 33% | +0.8 | +15.1 | -0.7 | -15.2 |