Game · 2023-24 Regular Season
1/5 Game 1
Kayamori Sayaka finished 1st (+63.5pt). The game was decided in South 1: Kayamori Sayaka ron 12,000 from Sonoda Ken, which moved Kayamori Sayaka's expected points by +35.7.
1st-place probabilityat the start of each hand
Hand by handexpected pt change = how much the hand's result moved the expected final points
| Hands | Result | Kayamori Sayaka 1st-place chance | Matsugase Takaya 1st-place chance | Sonoda Ken 1st-place chance | Hagiwara Masato 1st-place chance | Kayamori Sayaka Expected pt change | Matsugase Takaya Expected pt change | Sonoda Ken Expected pt change | Hagiwara Masato Expected pt change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| East 1 | Sonoda Ken tsumo 5,200 | 26% | 26% | 24% | 25% | -7.3 | -3.5 | +16.3 | -5.5 |
| East 2 | Hagiwara Masato ron 1,000 from Kayamori Sayaka | 20% | 22% | 36% | 21% | -5.0 | -0.9 | +1.9 | +4.0 |
| East 3 | Draw | 16% | 21% | 39% | 25% | +0.5 | -3.3 | +6.6 | -3.7 |
| East 3, 1 honba | Sonoda Ken tsumo 12,000 | 16% | 18% | 45% | 21% | -10.5 | -11.1 | +31.5 | -9.9 |
| East 3, 2 honba | Hagiwara Masato ron 3,900 from Matsugase Takaya | 7% | 7% | 74% | 11% | -1.2 | -8.6 | -0.5 | +10.3 |
| East 4 | Kayamori Sayaka tsumo 12,000 | 6% | 5% | 75% | 14% | +32.5 | -8.7 | -4.2 | -19.6 |
| South 1 | Kayamori Sayaka ron 12,000 from Sonoda Ken | 19% | 3% | 71% | 6% | +35.7 | +0.8 | -35.2 | -1.3 |
| South 1, 1 honba | Sonoda Ken ron 2,000 from Hagiwara Masato | 64% | 4% | 26% | 6% | -1.9 | -1.8 | +8.1 | -4.4 |
| South 2 | Kayamori Sayaka tsumo 2,700 | 62% | 3% | 30% | 5% | +13.1 | -6.9 | -6.3 | +0.1 |
| South 3 | Hagiwara Masato ron 8,000 from Sonoda Ken | 81% | 0% | 16% | 3% | +4.8 | -4.3 | -18.1 | +17.6 |
| South 4 | Sonoda Ken tsumo 2,000 | 93% | 0% | 1% | 6% | +2.5 | -3.2 | +9.1 | -8.4 |