Game · 2023-24 Regular Season
1/5 Game 1
Sayaka Kayamori finished 1st (+63.5pt). The game was decided in South 1: Sayaka Kayamori ron 12,000 from Ken Sonoda, which moved Sayaka Kayamori's expected points by +35.3.
1st-place probabilityat the start of each hand
Hand by handexpected pt change = how much the hand's result moved the expected final points
| Hands | Result | Sayaka Kayamori 1st-place chance | Takaya Matsugase 1st-place chance | Ken Sonoda 1st-place chance | Masato Hagiwara 1st-place chance | Sayaka Kayamori Expected pt change | Takaya Matsugase Expected pt change | Ken Sonoda Expected pt change | Masato Hagiwara Expected pt change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| East 1 | Ken Sonoda tsumo 5,200 | 25% | 26% | 25% | 24% | -6.9 | -5.6 | +17.3 | -4.8 |
| East 2 | Masato Hagiwara ron 1,000 from Sayaka Kayamori | 19% | 22% | 38% | 21% | -1.7 | -1.2 | -0.6 | +3.5 |
| East 3 | Exhaustive draw | 18% | 19% | 38% | 24% | -1.1 | -2.7 | +6.2 | -2.3 |
| East 3, 1 honba | Ken Sonoda tsumo 12,000 | 17% | 18% | 43% | 23% | -13.1 | -10.2 | +32.2 | -9.0 |
| East 3, 2 honba | Masato Hagiwara ron 3,900 from Takaya Matsugase | 6% | 8% | 75% | 11% | +0.4 | -9.7 | -0.3 | +9.6 |
| East 4 | Sayaka Kayamori tsumo 12,000 | 5% | 5% | 76% | 14% | +34.3 | -7.9 | -6.0 | -20.4 |
| South 1 | Sayaka Kayamori ron 12,000 from Ken Sonoda | 22% | 3% | 69% | 6% | +35.3 | -0.8 | -34.4 | -0.2 |
| South 1, 1 honba | Ken Sonoda ron 2,000 from Masato Hagiwara | 65% | 4% | 25% | 6% | -3.2 | -1.9 | +10.4 | -5.3 |
| South 2 | Sayaka Kayamori tsumo 2,700 | 61% | 3% | 32% | 5% | +11.9 | -4.6 | -6.4 | -0.8 |
| South 3 | Masato Hagiwara ron 8,000 from Ken Sonoda | 79% | 0% | 18% | 3% | +6.8 | -5.1 | -19.9 | +18.3 |
| South 4 | Ken Sonoda tsumo 2,000 | 94% | 0% | 0% | 6% | +2.1 | -2.9 | +9.1 | -8.3 |