Game · 2023-24 Regular Season
1/12 Game 1
Masatoshi Sarukawa finished 1st (+46.8pt). The game was decided in South 4: Masatoshi Sarukawa tsumo 5,200, which moved Masatoshi Sarukawa's expected points by +69.9.
1st-place probabilityat the start of each hand
Hand by handexpected pt change = how much the hand's result moved the expected final points
| Hands | Result | Shingo Hori 1st-place chance | Masatoshi Sarukawa 1st-place chance | Kenji Katsumata 1st-place chance | Hisato Sasaki 1st-place chance | Shingo Hori Expected pt change | Masatoshi Sarukawa Expected pt change | Kenji Katsumata Expected pt change | Hisato Sasaki Expected pt change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| East 1 | Shingo Hori ron 12,000 from Kenji Katsumata | 23% | 26% | 25% | 27% | +32.9 | -1.8 | -29.0 | -2.1 |
| East 1, 1 honba | Exhaustive draw | 49% | 21% | 8% | 22% | -4.3 | -3.4 | +2.3 | +5.4 |
| East 2, 2 honba | Shingo Hori tsumo 1,100 | 45% | 19% | 10% | 26% | +8.5 | -4.5 | -1.0 | -3.0 |
| East 3 | Kenji Katsumata tsumo 6,000 | 54% | 15% | 9% | 22% | -6.8 | -2.3 | +16.8 | -7.6 |
| East 3, 1 honba | Exhaustive draw | 47% | 16% | 17% | 20% | +0.1 | -5.5 | +7.7 | -2.2 |
| East 3, 2 honba | Hisato Sasaki ron 2,600 from Kenji Katsumata | 49% | 14% | 19% | 18% | +1.2 | +1.0 | -12.5 | +10.2 |
| East 4 | Exhaustive draw | 50% | 13% | 11% | 25% | -3.5 | +0.6 | -2.5 | +5.4 |
| East 4, 1 honba | Exhaustive draw | 46% | 14% | 12% | 28% | +5.4 | +5.7 | -3.5 | -7.7 |
| South 1, 2 honba | Hisato Sasaki tsumo 4,000 | 53% | 16% | 10% | 21% | -8.5 | -5.9 | -6.1 | +20.6 |
| South 2 | Kenji Katsumata tsumo 12,000 | 42% | 12% | 8% | 39% | -2.9 | -25.7 | +44.2 | -15.6 |
| South 3 | Masatoshi Sarukawa tsumo 8,000 | 40% | 2% | 32% | 26% | +2.9 | +17.8 | -11.8 | -8.9 |
| South 4 | Masatoshi Sarukawa tsumo 5,200 | 49% | 11% | 21% | 19% | -16.7 | +69.9 | -18.7 | -34.5 |