Game · 2023-24 Regular Season
1/12 Game 2
Sugawara Hiroe finished 1st (+65.3pt). The game was decided in East 1: Sugawara Hiroe ron 12,000 from Takamiya Mari, which moved Sugawara Hiroe's expected points by +32.3.
1st-place probabilityat the start of each hand
Hand by handexpected pt change = how much the hand's result moved the expected final points
| Hands | Result | Sugawara Hiroe 1st-place chance | Nikaido Rumi 1st-place chance | Takamiya Mari 1st-place chance | Shibukawa Namba 1st-place chance | Sugawara Hiroe Expected pt change | Nikaido Rumi Expected pt change | Takamiya Mari Expected pt change | Shibukawa Namba Expected pt change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| East 1 | Sugawara Hiroe ron 12,000 from Takamiya Mari | 24% | 25% | 25% | 26% | +32.3 | -1.3 | -29.2 | -1.8 |
| East 1, 1 honba | Sugawara Hiroe ron 7,700 from Takamiya Mari | 47% | 21% | 10% | 22% | +17.2 | -3.2 | -14.5 | +0.5 |
| East 1, 2 honba | Draw | 63% | 15% | 4% | 18% | +2.5 | +1.5 | -2.1 | -1.8 |
| East 1, 3 honba | Nikaido Rumi tsumo 1,500 | 64% | 16% | 3% | 17% | -1.5 | +6.9 | -1.8 | -3.6 |
| East 2 | Shibukawa Namba ron 3,900 from Nikaido Rumi | 64% | 18% | 4% | 14% | +2.5 | -13.0 | -0.8 | +11.3 |
| East 3 | Takamiya Mari tsumo 18,000 | 68% | 10% | 3% | 18% | -11.3 | -12.4 | +39.0 | -15.4 |
| East 3, 1 honba | Sugawara Hiroe tsumo 1,100 | 60% | 10% | 15% | 16% | +7.0 | -0.7 | -6.1 | -0.1 |
| East 4 | Takamiya Mari ron 1,600 from Nikaido Rumi | 68% | 8% | 10% | 14% | +1.6 | -4.2 | +5.9 | -3.2 |
| South 1 | Shibukawa Namba tsumo 8,000 | 73% | 6% | 12% | 10% | -13.4 | -9.4 | -7.3 | +30.0 |
| South 2 | Draw | 56% | 5% | 10% | 29% | +2.1 | +1.9 | -1.8 | -2.2 |
| South 2, 1 honba | Takamiya Mari tsumo 1,100 | 58% | 5% | 9% | 28% | +3.4 | -8.4 | +6.2 | -1.2 |
| South 3 | Takamiya Mari tsumo 3,000 | 65% | 1% | 10% | 24% | -2.4 | -3.7 | +9.4 | -3.4 |
| South 3, 1 honba | Sugawara Hiroe tsumo 1,500 | 62% | 0% | 15% | 23% | +12.3 | -2.7 | -7.8 | -1.8 |
| South 4 | Shibukawa Namba tsumo 3,900 | 82% | 0% | 3% | 15% | -3.5 | -1.4 | -4.7 | +9.6 |
| South 4, 1 honba | Sugawara Hiroe ron 8,000 from Takamiya Mari | 77% | 0% | 3% | 20% | +18.1 | -0.9 | -10.3 | -6.9 |