Most differences in results are within chance.They are no grounds for criticising players.

Game · 2023-24 Regular Season

1/12 Game 2

Sugawara Hiroe finished 1st (+65.3pt). The game was decided in East 1: Sugawara Hiroe ron 12,000 from Takamiya Mari, which moved Sugawara Hiroe's expected points by +32.3.

1st-place probabilityat the start of each hand

0%25%50%75%100%East 1East 3South 2End● Sugawara Hiroe● Nikaido Rumi● Takamiya Mari● Shibukawa Namba0%25%50%75%100%East 1South 1End● Sugawara● Nikaido● Takamiya● Shibukawa
The chance of finishing 1st, at the start of each hand (estimated by simulation). Shaded: the hand that decided this game.

Hand by handexpected pt change = how much the hand's result moved the expected final points

HandsResultSugawara Hiroe
1st-place chance
Nikaido Rumi
1st-place chance
Takamiya Mari
1st-place chance
Shibukawa Namba
1st-place chance
Sugawara Hiroe
Expected pt change
Nikaido Rumi
Expected pt change
Takamiya Mari
Expected pt change
Shibukawa Namba
Expected pt change
East 1Sugawara Hiroe ron 12,000 from Takamiya Mari24%25%25%26%+32.3-1.3-29.2-1.8
East 1, 1 honbaSugawara Hiroe ron 7,700 from Takamiya Mari47%21%10%22%+17.2-3.2-14.5+0.5
East 1, 2 honbaDraw63%15%4%18%+2.5+1.5-2.1-1.8
East 1, 3 honbaNikaido Rumi tsumo 1,50064%16%3%17%-1.5+6.9-1.8-3.6
East 2Shibukawa Namba ron 3,900 from Nikaido Rumi64%18%4%14%+2.5-13.0-0.8+11.3
East 3Takamiya Mari tsumo 18,00068%10%3%18%-11.3-12.4+39.0-15.4
East 3, 1 honbaSugawara Hiroe tsumo 1,10060%10%15%16%+7.0-0.7-6.1-0.1
East 4Takamiya Mari ron 1,600 from Nikaido Rumi68%8%10%14%+1.6-4.2+5.9-3.2
South 1Shibukawa Namba tsumo 8,00073%6%12%10%-13.4-9.4-7.3+30.0
South 2Draw56%5%10%29%+2.1+1.9-1.8-2.2
South 2, 1 honbaTakamiya Mari tsumo 1,10058%5%9%28%+3.4-8.4+6.2-1.2
South 3Takamiya Mari tsumo 3,00065%1%10%24%-2.4-3.7+9.4-3.4
South 3, 1 honbaSugawara Hiroe tsumo 1,50062%0%15%23%+12.3-2.7-7.8-1.8
South 4Shibukawa Namba tsumo 3,90082%0%3%15%-3.5-1.4-4.7+9.6
South 4, 1 honbaSugawara Hiroe ron 8,000 from Takamiya Mari77%0%3%20%+18.1-0.9-10.3-6.9

All 2023-24 games / This game's record (M League Haifu)