Game · 2023-24 Regular Season
1/12 Game 2
Hiroe Sugawara finished 1st (+65.3pt). The game was decided in East 1: Hiroe Sugawara ron 12,000 from Mari Takamiya, which moved Hiroe Sugawara's expected points by +29.3.
1st-place probabilityat the start of each hand
Hand by handexpected pt change = how much the hand's result moved the expected final points
| Hands | Result | Hiroe Sugawara 1st-place chance | Rumi Nikaido 1st-place chance | Mari Takamiya 1st-place chance | Namba Shibukawa 1st-place chance | Hiroe Sugawara Expected pt change | Rumi Nikaido Expected pt change | Mari Takamiya Expected pt change | Namba Shibukawa Expected pt change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| East 1 | Hiroe Sugawara ron 12,000 from Mari Takamiya | 25% | 25% | 25% | 25% | +29.3 | +0.6 | -29.4 | -0.5 |
| East 1, 1 honba | Hiroe Sugawara ron 7,700 from Mari Takamiya | 46% | 23% | 10% | 22% | +18.0 | -2.3 | -16.4 | +0.6 |
| East 1, 2 honba | Exhaustive draw | 61% | 18% | 3% | 18% | +4.8 | -3.5 | -0.1 | -1.2 |
| East 1, 3 honba | Rumi Nikaido tsumo 1,500 | 65% | 14% | 4% | 17% | -3.0 | +8.1 | -1.5 | -3.6 |
| East 2 | Namba Shibukawa ron 3,900 from Rumi Nikaido | 63% | 19% | 4% | 15% | +3.4 | -11.9 | +0.2 | +8.3 |
| East 3 | Mari Takamiya tsumo 18,000 | 69% | 10% | 3% | 18% | -13.5 | -12.5 | +36.9 | -11.0 |
| East 3, 1 honba | Hiroe Sugawara tsumo 1,100 | 56% | 10% | 16% | 17% | +8.7 | -1.8 | -5.8 | -1.0 |
| East 4 | Mari Takamiya ron 1,600 from Rumi Nikaido | 68% | 7% | 10% | 15% | +1.0 | -3.9 | +6.8 | -3.9 |
| South 1 | Namba Shibukawa tsumo 8,000 | 71% | 7% | 12% | 10% | -12.9 | -9.8 | -6.8 | +29.5 |
| South 2 | Exhaustive draw | 56% | 5% | 10% | 30% | +1.7 | +3.6 | -3.1 | -2.2 |
| South 2, 1 honba | Mari Takamiya tsumo 1,100 | 57% | 6% | 9% | 28% | +4.0 | -9.8 | +7.0 | -1.3 |
| South 3 | Mari Takamiya tsumo 3,000 | 65% | 1% | 10% | 24% | -2.0 | -2.4 | +7.5 | -3.0 |
| South 3, 1 honba | Hiroe Sugawara tsumo 1,500 | 63% | 1% | 14% | 22% | +13.0 | -3.5 | -6.2 | -3.3 |
| South 4 | Namba Shibukawa tsumo 3,900 | 84% | 0% | 2% | 13% | -3.7 | -2.1 | -5.3 | +11.1 |
| South 4, 1 honba | Hiroe Sugawara ron 8,000 from Mari Takamiya | 78% | 0% | 2% | 20% | +17.5 | -0.7 | -9.8 | -7.0 |