Game · 2023-24 Regular Season
1/15 Game 2
Akina Mizuhara finished 1st (+54.3pt). The game was decided in South 4: Akina Mizuhara ron 8,000 from Kenji Katsumata, which moved Akina Mizuhara's expected points by +59.4.
1st-place probabilityat the start of each hand
Hand by handexpected pt change = how much the hand's result moved the expected final points
| Hands | Result | Sho Shiratori 1st-place chance | Akina Mizuhara 1st-place chance | Yuumi Uotani 1st-place chance | Kenji Katsumata 1st-place chance | Sho Shiratori Expected pt change | Akina Mizuhara Expected pt change | Yuumi Uotani Expected pt change | Kenji Katsumata Expected pt change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| East 1 | Exhaustive draw | 25% | 25% | 25% | 25% | -4.0 | -3.9 | +8.5 | -0.6 |
| East 2, 1 honba | Yuumi Uotani ron 3,900 from Akina Mizuhara | 23% | 23% | 30% | 24% | -0.2 | -13.8 | +13.1 | +0.8 |
| East 3 | Yuumi Uotani tsumo 3,000 | 21% | 14% | 40% | 25% | -2.1 | -2.4 | +8.5 | -4.0 |
| East 3, 1 honba | Kenji Katsumata tsumo 2,000 | 19% | 12% | 48% | 21% | -0.8 | -0.3 | -4.4 | +5.4 |
| East 4 | Kenji Katsumata tsumo 1,500 | 19% | 12% | 44% | 25% | -5.0 | -2.4 | -1.3 | +8.7 |
| East 4, 1 honba | Exhaustive draw | 16% | 11% | 42% | 31% | -3.1 | -3.2 | -1.8 | +8.1 |
| East 4, 2 honba | Akina Mizuhara ron 6,400 from Sho Shiratori | 14% | 9% | 40% | 37% | -21.4 | +22.2 | +0.5 | -1.3 |
| South 1 | Exhaustive draw | 7% | 19% | 39% | 35% | +1.6 | +1.7 | +3.4 | -6.7 |
| South 1, 1 honba | Kenji Katsumata tsumo 5,200 | 7% | 20% | 44% | 29% | -10.1 | -9.6 | -3.8 | +23.4 |
| South 2 | Akina Mizuhara ron 1,500 from Sho Shiratori | 2% | 12% | 35% | 52% | -2.8 | +8.4 | -3.3 | -2.3 |
| South 2, 1 honba | Exhaustive draw | 1% | 18% | 31% | 50% | -2.0 | +1.2 | -2.2 | +2.9 |
| South 2, 2 honba | Sho Shiratori ron 12,000 from Kenji Katsumata | 1% | 17% | 29% | 53% | +35.7 | -0.1 | +10.2 | -45.8 |
| South 3 | Sho Shiratori ron 5,200 from Kenji Katsumata | 15% | 19% | 49% | 17% | +21.4 | -3.8 | +2.3 | -19.9 |
| South 4 | Akina Mizuhara ron 8,000 from Kenji Katsumata | 24% | 14% | 53% | 9% | -22.1 | +59.4 | -17.5 | -19.8 |