Game · 2023-24 Regular Season
1/16 Game 1
Sayaka Okada finished 1st (+52.9pt). The game was decided in South 4, 1 honba: Tomohiro Honda tsumo 6,400, which moved Sayaka Okada's expected points by +24.1.
1st-place probabilityat the start of each hand
Hand by handexpected pt change = how much the hand's result moved the expected final points
| Hands | Result | Masatoshi Sarukawa 1st-place chance | Tomohiro Honda 1st-place chance | Sayaka Okada 1st-place chance | Kazunori Takizawa 1st-place chance | Masatoshi Sarukawa Expected pt change | Tomohiro Honda Expected pt change | Sayaka Okada Expected pt change | Kazunori Takizawa Expected pt change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| East 1 | Exhaustive draw | 26% | 24% | 24% | 26% | -1.8 | -3.1 | +5.9 | -0.9 |
| East 2, 1 honba | Masatoshi Sarukawa tsumo 5,200 | 23% | 24% | 29% | 25% | +17.6 | -10.9 | -2.9 | -3.7 |
| East 3 | Sayaka Okada tsumo 3,900 | 37% | 15% | 25% | 23% | -4.4 | -0.1 | +9.5 | -5.0 |
| East 3, 1 honba | Tomohiro Honda tsumo 2,000 | 32% | 15% | 34% | 20% | 0.0 | +8.8 | -4.8 | -4.0 |
| East 4 | Sayaka Okada ron 1,300 from Kazunori Takizawa | 32% | 21% | 29% | 18% | -0.9 | -0.1 | +9.7 | -8.7 |
| South 1 | Masatoshi Sarukawa ron 18,000 from Tomohiro Honda | 31% | 20% | 37% | 12% | +47.0 | -41.7 | -6.0 | +0.7 |
| South 1, 1 honba | Tomohiro Honda tsumo 4,000 | 77% | 2% | 17% | 5% | -3.3 | +6.0 | -1.0 | -1.7 |
| South 2 | Sayaka Okada tsumo 8,000 | 77% | 2% | 16% | 5% | -5.0 | -11.3 | +19.6 | -3.3 |
| South 3 | Kazunori Takizawa ron 3,900 from Masatoshi Sarukawa | 67% | 0% | 30% | 3% | -8.2 | -2.1 | +2.7 | +7.7 |
| South 4 | Kazunori Takizawa tsumo 12,000 | 57% | 0% | 39% | 4% | -16.6 | -4.8 | -3.7 | +25.2 |
| South 4, 1 honba | Tomohiro Honda tsumo 6,400 | 36% | 0% | 45% | 19% | -11.7 | +6.9 | +24.1 | -19.3 |