Game · 2023-24 Regular Season
1/16 Game 1
Okada Sayaka finished 1st (+52.9pt). The game was decided in South 4, 1 honba: Honda Tomohiro tsumo 6,400, which moved Okada Sayaka's expected points by +24.0.
1st-place probabilityat the start of each hand
Hand by handexpected pt change = how much the hand's result moved the expected final points
| Hands | Result | Sarukawa Masatoshi 1st-place chance | Honda Tomohiro 1st-place chance | Okada Sayaka 1st-place chance | Takizawa Kazunori 1st-place chance | Sarukawa Masatoshi Expected pt change | Honda Tomohiro Expected pt change | Okada Sayaka Expected pt change | Takizawa Kazunori Expected pt change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| East 1 | Draw | 25% | 24% | 27% | 24% | -3.8 | -1.6 | +5.5 | -0.1 |
| East 2, 1 honba | Sarukawa Masatoshi tsumo 5,200 | 22% | 24% | 30% | 25% | +20.0 | -11.4 | -5.2 | -3.4 |
| East 3 | Okada Sayaka tsumo 3,900 | 38% | 16% | 25% | 21% | -6.0 | -2.3 | +10.1 | -1.9 |
| East 3, 1 honba | Honda Tomohiro tsumo 2,000 | 32% | 16% | 32% | 21% | -1.4 | +9.3 | -1.9 | -6.0 |
| East 4 | Okada Sayaka ron 1,300 from Takizawa Kazunori | 31% | 20% | 30% | 18% | +3.1 | +0.5 | +7.8 | -11.4 |
| South 1 | Sarukawa Masatoshi ron 18,000 from Honda Tomohiro | 32% | 20% | 38% | 11% | +44.7 | -41.4 | -7.3 | +4.0 |
| South 1, 1 honba | Honda Tomohiro tsumo 4,000 | 77% | 2% | 16% | 5% | -3.0 | +6.6 | -0.3 | -3.3 |
| South 2 | Okada Sayaka tsumo 8,000 | 78% | 3% | 15% | 4% | -5.0 | -11.6 | +20.0 | -3.4 |
| South 3 | Takizawa Kazunori ron 3,900 from Sarukawa Masatoshi | 67% | 0% | 30% | 3% | -6.7 | -3.0 | +1.7 | +8.0 |
| South 4 | Takizawa Kazunori tsumo 12,000 | 61% | 0% | 35% | 4% | -17.8 | -4.8 | -2.4 | +25.0 |
| South 4, 1 honba | Honda Tomohiro tsumo 6,400 | 37% | 0% | 45% | 19% | -12.6 | +7.1 | +24.0 | -18.5 |