Game · 2023-24 Regular Season
1/16 Game 2
Hori Shingo finished 1st (+61.9pt). The game was decided in East 3, 1 honba: Hori Shingo ron 12,000 from Setokuma Naoki, which moved Hori Shingo's expected points by +42.9.
1st-place probabilityat the start of each hand
Hand by handexpected pt change = how much the hand's result moved the expected final points
| Hands | Result | Setokuma Naoki 1st-place chance | Hori Shingo 1st-place chance | Date Arisa 1st-place chance | Suzuki Daisuke 1st-place chance | Setokuma Naoki Expected pt change | Hori Shingo Expected pt change | Date Arisa Expected pt change | Suzuki Daisuke Expected pt change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| East 1 | Setokuma Naoki tsumo 6,000 | 24% | 26% | 25% | 26% | +16.2 | -4.0 | -6.8 | -5.4 |
| East 1, 1 honba | Hori Shingo ron 2,000 from Date Arisa | 35% | 23% | 20% | 22% | -0.1 | +5.0 | -5.7 | +0.8 |
| East 2 | Draw | 35% | 26% | 17% | 23% | +3.6 | -4.3 | -2.7 | +3.4 |
| East 3, 1 honba | Hori Shingo ron 12,000 from Setokuma Naoki | 39% | 21% | 16% | 24% | -33.6 | +42.9 | -7.6 | -1.6 |
| East 4 | Draw | 12% | 60% | 9% | 19% | -4.4 | +4.6 | +4.0 | -4.2 |
| South 1, 1 honba | Date Arisa ron 3,200 from Suzuki Daisuke | 10% | 67% | 9% | 15% | -7.2 | +3.7 | +16.5 | -13.0 |
| South 2 | Hori Shingo tsumo 12,000 | 4% | 73% | 15% | 9% | -3.7 | +20.5 | -10.5 | -6.3 |
| South 2, 1 honba | Suzuki Daisuke tsumo 5,200 | 1% | 92% | 4% | 3% | -7.7 | -3.6 | -4.3 | +15.6 |
| South 3 | Suzuki Daisuke ron 5,200 from Setokuma Naoki | 0% | 92% | 4% | 4% | -13.0 | +1.1 | -3.7 | +15.6 |
| South 4 | Draw | 0% | 94% | 0% | 6% | +2.1 | -0.9 | -3.9 | +2.8 |
| South 4, 1 honba | Date Arisa ron 5,200 from Hori Shingo | 0% | 94% | 0% | 6% | -3.4 | -3.2 | +8.4 | -1.9 |