Game · 2023-24 Regular Season
1/16 Game 2
Shingo Hori finished 1st (+61.9pt). The game was decided in East 3, 1 honba: Shingo Hori ron 12,000 from Naoki Setokuma, which moved Shingo Hori's expected points by +44.5.
1st-place probabilityat the start of each hand
Hand by handexpected pt change = how much the hand's result moved the expected final points
| Hands | Result | Naoki Setokuma 1st-place chance | Shingo Hori 1st-place chance | Arisa Date 1st-place chance | Daisuke Suzuki 1st-place chance | Naoki Setokuma Expected pt change | Shingo Hori Expected pt change | Arisa Date Expected pt change | Daisuke Suzuki Expected pt change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| East 1 | Naoki Setokuma tsumo 6,000 | 25% | 27% | 22% | 25% | +18.0 | -8.6 | -3.1 | -6.3 |
| East 1, 1 honba | Shingo Hori ron 2,000 from Arisa Date | 38% | 20% | 21% | 21% | -4.6 | +7.6 | -5.2 | +2.2 |
| East 2 | Exhaustive draw | 34% | 25% | 18% | 23% | +4.6 | -5.9 | -2.8 | +4.1 |
| East 3, 1 honba | Shingo Hori ron 12,000 from Naoki Setokuma | 38% | 21% | 17% | 24% | -34.0 | +44.5 | -6.9 | -3.6 |
| East 4 | Exhaustive draw | 12% | 60% | 10% | 19% | -3.5 | +5.4 | +3.2 | -5.1 |
| South 1, 1 honba | Arisa Date ron 3,200 from Daisuke Suzuki | 10% | 67% | 10% | 13% | -5.5 | +2.6 | +14.0 | -11.1 |
| South 2 | Shingo Hori tsumo 12,000 | 4% | 73% | 14% | 9% | -5.0 | +21.7 | -8.9 | -7.7 |
| South 2, 1 honba | Daisuke Suzuki tsumo 5,200 | 0% | 93% | 4% | 2% | -7.0 | -3.9 | -5.1 | +16.0 |
| South 3 | Daisuke Suzuki ron 5,200 from Naoki Setokuma | 0% | 93% | 3% | 4% | -14.0 | +1.1 | -3.1 | +15.9 |
| South 4 | Exhaustive draw | 0% | 94% | 0% | 6% | +2.2 | -2.1 | -3.5 | +3.4 |
| South 4, 1 honba | Arisa Date ron 5,200 from Shingo Hori | 0% | 93% | 0% | 7% | -3.4 | -2.4 | +8.1 | -2.3 |