Game · 2023-24 Regular Season
1/18 Game 1
Takamiya Mari finished 1st (+83.2pt). The game was decided in East 2, 1 honba: Takamiya Mari tsumo 12,000, which moved Takamiya Mari's expected points by +37.2.
1st-place probabilityat the start of each hand
Hand by handexpected pt change = how much the hand's result moved the expected final points
| Hands | Result | Uotani Yuumi 1st-place chance | Watanabe Futoshi 1st-place chance | Takamiya Mari 1st-place chance | Hori Shingo 1st-place chance | Uotani Yuumi Expected pt change | Watanabe Futoshi Expected pt change | Takamiya Mari Expected pt change | Hori Shingo Expected pt change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| East 1 | Watanabe Futoshi tsumo 2,000 | 25% | 26% | 24% | 26% | -5.4 | +8.6 | -3.3 | +0.2 |
| East 2 | Watanabe Futoshi tsumo 3,000 | 21% | 31% | 22% | 25% | -2.4 | +8.8 | -5.0 | -1.5 |
| East 2, 1 honba | Takamiya Mari tsumo 12,000 | 18% | 38% | 19% | 24% | -7.8 | -21.9 | +37.2 | -7.4 |
| East 3 | Draw | 14% | 20% | 48% | 19% | +2.1 | +7.9 | -4.9 | -5.1 |
| East 4, 1 honba | Uotani Yuumi tsumo 2,000 | 16% | 25% | 42% | 18% | +12.0 | -2.8 | +0.8 | -10.1 |
| South 1 | Takamiya Mari tsumo 8,000 | 22% | 22% | 44% | 11% | -14.9 | -6.2 | +25.1 | -4.0 |
| South 2 | Draw | 6% | 13% | 75% | 6% | -2.0 | -2.8 | +8.6 | -3.8 |
| South 3, 1 honba | Takamiya Mari ron 18,000 from Uotani Yuumi | 3% | 5% | 88% | 4% | -37.5 | +4.5 | +23.8 | +9.1 |
| South 3, 2 honba | Takamiya Mari ron 2,000 from Hori Shingo | 0% | 0% | 99% | 1% | +1.1 | +1.3 | +2.8 | -5.2 |
| South 3, 3 honba | Uotani Yuumi tsumo 8,000 | 0% | 0% | 100% | 1% | +23.5 | -4.8 | -5.4 | -13.3 |
| South 4 | Hori Shingo ron 3,900 from Watanabe Futoshi | 0% | 0% | 100% | 0% | -4.1 | -8.3 | +0.2 | +12.1 |
| South 4, 1 honba | Hori Shingo ron 5,800 from Uotani Yuumi | 0% | 0% | 99% | 1% | -16.7 | -9.5 | -0.1 | +26.3 |
| South 4, 2 honba | Hori Shingo ron 5,800 from Uotani Yuumi | 0% | 0% | 99% | 1% | -9.1 | -0.2 | -0.9 | +10.2 |
| South 4, 3 honba | Takamiya Mari tsumo 2,000 | 0% | 0% | 98% | 2% | -1.4 | -0.9 | +4.6 | -2.3 |