Game · 2023-24 Regular Season
1/22 Game 1
Saki Kurosawa finished 1st (+54.8pt). The game was decided in South 3: Saki Kurosawa ron 8,000 from Sayaka Okada, which moved Saki Kurosawa's expected points by +43.5.
1st-place probabilityat the start of each hand
Hand by handexpected pt change = how much the hand's result moved the expected final points
| Hands | Result | Saki Kurosawa 1st-place chance | Aki Nikaido 1st-place chance | Sayaka Okada 1st-place chance | Mari Takamiya 1st-place chance | Saki Kurosawa Expected pt change | Aki Nikaido Expected pt change | Sayaka Okada Expected pt change | Mari Takamiya Expected pt change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| East 1 | Saki Kurosawa tsumo 12,000 | 26% | 23% | 25% | 26% | +27.9 | -7.2 | -9.8 | -10.8 |
| East 1, 1 honba | Sayaka Okada tsumo 12,000 | 47% | 18% | 17% | 18% | -16.9 | -9.3 | +32.5 | -6.3 |
| East 2 | Exhaustive draw | 32% | 13% | 40% | 15% | -0.9 | +3.3 | -4.5 | +2.1 |
| East 2, 1 honba | Sayaka Okada ron 1,300 from Aki Nikaido | 31% | 16% | 38% | 16% | 0.0 | -9.3 | +10.3 | -1.0 |
| East 3 | Mari Takamiya ron 5,200 from Sayaka Okada | 29% | 10% | 46% | 15% | +2.3 | +0.1 | -14.0 | +11.6 |
| East 4 | Aki Nikaido ron 3,900 from Mari Takamiya | 33% | 10% | 34% | 22% | -0.2 | +13.2 | +1.1 | -14.1 |
| South 1 | Exhaustive draw | 33% | 17% | 35% | 15% | -1.0 | +6.8 | -0.3 | -5.5 |
| South 2, 1 honba | Aki Nikaido ron 2,000 from Mari Takamiya | 32% | 21% | 35% | 12% | -2.3 | +11.6 | -0.9 | -8.4 |
| South 2, 2 honba | Sayaka Okada ron 8,000 from Mari Takamiya | 30% | 28% | 34% | 8% | -5.1 | -5.3 | +28.2 | -17.8 |
| South 3 | Saki Kurosawa ron 8,000 from Sayaka Okada | 17% | 16% | 65% | 2% | +43.5 | -3.4 | -39.4 | -0.7 |
| South 4 | Mari Takamiya tsumo 12,000 | 79% | 9% | 10% | 2% | -6.7 | -7.6 | -8.0 | +22.2 |
| South 4, 1 honba | Saki Kurosawa tsumo 1,100 | 74% | 8% | 8% | 10% | +13.2 | -7.3 | +9.3 | -15.2 |