Game · 2023-24 Regular Season
1/22 Game 2
Naoki Setokuma finished 1st (+67.7pt). The game was decided in East 3: Naoki Setokuma tsumo 24,000, which moved Naoki Setokuma's expected points by +65.6.
1st-place probabilityat the start of each hand
Hand by handexpected pt change = how much the hand's result moved the expected final points
| Hands | Result | Shingo Hori 1st-place chance | Kazunori Takizawa 1st-place chance | Naoki Setokuma 1st-place chance | Takaya Matsugase 1st-place chance | Shingo Hori Expected pt change | Kazunori Takizawa Expected pt change | Naoki Setokuma Expected pt change | Takaya Matsugase Expected pt change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| East 1 | Takaya Matsugase ron 8,000 from Shingo Hori | 26% | 22% | 26% | 25% | -25.1 | +0.5 | -1.4 | +25.9 |
| East 2 | Kazunori Takizawa tsumo 6,000 | 11% | 22% | 23% | 44% | -4.1 | +19.0 | -7.1 | -7.8 |
| East 2, 1 honba | Shingo Hori tsumo 8,000 | 10% | 36% | 18% | 36% | +23.0 | -12.0 | -6.0 | -5.0 |
| East 3 | Naoki Setokuma tsumo 24,000 | 21% | 27% | 17% | 35% | -20.4 | -23.3 | +65.6 | -21.9 |
| East 3, 1 honba | Shingo Hori ron 8,000 from Naoki Setokuma | 7% | 8% | 72% | 13% | +23.2 | -2.0 | -20.5 | -0.6 |
| East 4 | Kazunori Takizawa tsumo 2,700 | 21% | 11% | 51% | 16% | -2.1 | +5.9 | +3.2 | -7.1 |
| South 1 | Kazunori Takizawa tsumo 12,000 | 19% | 13% | 56% | 12% | -24.0 | +42.2 | -9.6 | -8.5 |
| South 2 | Naoki Setokuma tsumo 5,200 | 5% | 44% | 42% | 8% | -4.8 | -17.1 | +24.1 | -2.3 |
| South 3 | Naoki Setokuma ron 12,000 from Takaya Matsugase | 2% | 16% | 77% | 6% | +5.6 | -3.1 | +19.9 | -22.5 |
| South 3, 1 honba | Naoki Setokuma ron 1,500 from Takaya Matsugase | 0% | 3% | 96% | 1% | +0.9 | -0.5 | +3.0 | -3.5 |
| South 3, 2 honba | Takaya Matsugase tsumo 8,000 | 0% | 2% | 97% | 1% | -5.1 | -1.8 | -5.4 | +12.4 |
| South 4 | Shingo Hori tsumo 4,000 | 0% | 1% | 97% | 1% | +8.1 | +1.8 | +0.7 | -10.7 |