Game · 2023-24 Regular Season
1/22 Game 2
Setokuma Naoki finished 1st (+67.7pt). The game was decided in East 3: Setokuma Naoki tsumo 24,000, which moved Setokuma Naoki's expected points by +62.9.
1st-place probabilityat the start of each hand
Hand by handexpected pt change = how much the hand's result moved the expected final points
| Hands | Result | Hori Shingo 1st-place chance | Takizawa Kazunori 1st-place chance | Setokuma Naoki 1st-place chance | Matsugase Takaya 1st-place chance | Hori Shingo Expected pt change | Takizawa Kazunori Expected pt change | Setokuma Naoki Expected pt change | Matsugase Takaya Expected pt change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| East 1 | Matsugase Takaya ron 8,000 from Hori Shingo | 25% | 25% | 24% | 26% | -20.9 | -3.2 | 0.0 | +24.2 |
| East 2 | Takizawa Kazunori tsumo 6,000 | 12% | 22% | 23% | 43% | -4.8 | +18.4 | -4.9 | -8.8 |
| East 2, 1 honba | Hori Shingo tsumo 8,000 | 10% | 35% | 20% | 35% | +21.5 | -11.7 | -5.0 | -4.8 |
| East 3 | Setokuma Naoki tsumo 24,000 | 21% | 27% | 17% | 35% | -20.4 | -22.8 | +62.9 | -19.8 |
| East 3, 1 honba | Hori Shingo ron 8,000 from Setokuma Naoki | 7% | 9% | 71% | 13% | +22.3 | -2.6 | -18.6 | -1.2 |
| East 4 | Takizawa Kazunori tsumo 2,700 | 18% | 12% | 54% | 17% | -1.0 | +7.1 | +0.7 | -6.9 |
| South 1 | Takizawa Kazunori tsumo 12,000 | 18% | 14% | 56% | 12% | -24.4 | +42.7 | -9.1 | -9.3 |
| South 2 | Setokuma Naoki tsumo 5,200 | 5% | 47% | 41% | 8% | -2.8 | -17.9 | +24.5 | -3.8 |
| South 3 | Setokuma Naoki ron 12,000 from Matsugase Takaya | 1% | 17% | 77% | 5% | +6.0 | -3.8 | +20.3 | -22.5 |
| South 3, 1 honba | Setokuma Naoki ron 1,500 from Matsugase Takaya | 0% | 3% | 96% | 1% | -0.4 | -0.1 | +1.9 | -1.4 |
| South 3, 2 honba | Matsugase Takaya tsumo 8,000 | 0% | 3% | 96% | 1% | -4.9 | -1.8 | -4.4 | +11.1 |
| South 4 | Hori Shingo tsumo 4,000 | 0% | 1% | 98% | 1% | +7.7 | +1.7 | +0.5 | -9.9 |